The day Americans and the world have been waiting for has arrived. Today they will name their next president. Although they will more precisely indicate to their representatives – electors which candidate they should support. What are the US elections?
American elections are different from what we know from our electoral realities. In the United States, the vote of the majority may turn out to be different than the final election result. This was already the case – when in 2016 almost 66 million votes were cast for Hilary Clinton, and for Donald Trump almost 63 million. However, it was the latter who then became the president of the USA. This is because the election is not determined by an absolute majority of electoral votes, but by a majority of electoral votes. He got 306 of them and Clinton got 232. Below we explain what it is.
What's the deal with electors?
There are 538 total electors – that is, exactly as many members of the House of Representatives and senators combined, plus an additional three from the District Colombia (this one is not a state, but a federal territory covering the capital of the USA, Washington, and does not have its own representatives and senators – ed.). To become president you need to have 270 out of a total of 538 on your side.
Each state has a certain number of electors. The largest – California – currently as many as 54, then Texas – 40, Florida – 30 and New York – 28.
United States Electoral CollegePAP
The specificity of individual states and their voting history indicates that some of the electoral votes can now be attributed to one of the candidates with almost 100% certainty – because in California, a Democrat has always won the presidential elections for 32 years, and in Texas, since 1980, the Republicans have always won. Almost one hundred percent, because… anything can happen. For example, the state of Iowa, previously considered “safe” for Trump, where he won with a significant margin in the previous elections, may have recently changed its sympathies. According to the survey Ann Selzer and the Des Moines Register Kamala Harris he currently wins there by 47 to 44 percent.
What are key states?
In the last weeks of the campaign, we heard it most often about key states, swing states or swing states. This is where none of the candidates has a clear advantage over their rival and it is the votes cast in these states that may determine the final victory of this or that candidate. In this year's elections they are: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. These states have been the focus of the election campaign in recent weeks.
He has the most votes out of all the “key” ones Pennsylvania – 19, and here the fight looked the fiercest. To the end polls they also indicated that it was very even.
Swing states PAP
How electors vote
Let's get back to the electors from individual states. After today's vote and counting of all previously cast votes, they will know who to choose during the electoral college, which will take place on December 17. Forty-eight states and the District of Columbia have a winner-take-all system, which means that all it takes is a one-vote advantage in the overall vote for all of a given state's electoral votes to go to the winning candidate. The exceptions are the states of Nebraska and Maine, where the so-called district system – electoral votes are allocated in a two-stage process.
Theoretically, the so-called faithless electors – voting contrary to what the citizens of a given state decided. This is what happened in the case of the 2016 elections mentioned at the beginning of the text. Although According to the results after election night, Trump received 306 votes and Clinton received 232in the end he got 304 and she got 227. However, it did not matter for the overall result. Dozens of states have laws designed to prevent such moves, even providing for the possibility of imposing a fine. In practice, however, electors almost always vote the way the residents of a given state want.
Theoretically, the electoral vote may result in a tie of 269 to 269. The House of Representatives will then choose the new president.
When will we know the election results?
After voting ends, the counting of votes begins. Those cast during Election Day and in early voting – in person and by correspondence. Results from individual states may be announced on election night. In the charts shown by the media, we will see how many candidates are missing from obtaining 270 electoral votes. The one whose support exceeds this ceiling will win the election.
When will we know the results? During Barack Obama's second term, the prediction of his victory was given before midnight on Election Day. Donald Trump's first election was announced before 9 a.m. Polish time. But we only learned the results of the Trump-Biden duel on Saturday around 17 Polish time.
It is known that the Electoral College, which will formally decide on the winner, will meet on December 17. On January 6, there will be a session of the United States Congress, during which the electoral votes will be counted – then the winner of the US presidential election will be officially announced.
Main photo source: Reuters