What determined Donald Trump's victory, what was missing for Kamala Harris, how has the political map of the United States changed in recent years? – the American media is trying to answer these questions, summarizing Tuesday's elections in the US. Here are the six most important conclusions from these analyses.
Donald Trump will be the next US president – he managed to exceed the required threshold of 270 electors, which ensures his return to the White House. Below we present the six most important conclusions from Tuesday's presidential elections in the United States.
1. The same states decided
CNN noted that although votes are still being counted in several states, Donald Trump's final victory was sealed in almost the same states as in 2016. Of the seven swing states this year, the Republican won five (Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania) and leads in two more (Arizona and Nevada). In 2016, all of the above-mentioned countries also fell victim to it, except Nevada.
Winning six of these seven states (except North Carolina) in 2020 also allowed us to win Joe Biden.
2. Republicans are gaining strength in the old swing states
The American media draws attention to the consolidation of the Republican status of two states that until recently were considered swing states – Florida and Ohio.
Two years after Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis won a landslide 19-point re-election victory, Trump sealed Florida's status with another double-digit GOP win, 56 to 43 percent, over Kamala Harris. In heavily Latino Miami-Dade County – a traditional reservoir of Democratic votes – the changes are clearly visible. While in 2016 Hillary Clinton won here by 29 percentage points, this year Trump achieved a result that was 11 points better than her rival.
Donald Trump's headquarters at the Palm Beach Convention Center in FloridaChip Somodevilla/Getty Images
According to “The Hill”, the first warning sign for Kamala Harris after the polls closed was a relatively quick indication that Trump was winning in Florida. “The result itself was not a shock – but the fact that Trump won by about twice the six points that average polls had predicted was ominous for the Democratic nominee,” we read.
CNN estimated that Florida could become the new Texas – poised for decades of Republican dominance built on a coalition of older, uneducated voters, younger Latinos and conservatives migrating from other states.
Ohio, another traditional presidential battleground that voted for Trump in 2020, again chose the Republicans for the first time since 1964 without “indicating” a winner on a national scale. Trump won there this year by 11 percentage points.
Moreover, Democrat Sherrod Brown, who had been in the upper house since 2007, lost his seat in the Senate to Republican Party representative Bernie Moreno.
3. Demographic surprise
Much of the media coverage ahead of Election Day focused on whether Trump would gain support among black voters, especially black men, or among younger voters. In fact, changes in these demographic groups were small – according to polls exit poll.
What is surprising, however, is the attitude of Latino men. In 2020, CNN polls showed this group voted for Joe Biden by a 23-point margin – 59 to 36 percent – over Donald Trump. This year's CNN poll found that Latinos voted for Trump by a 10-point margin (54 to 44 percent) over Harris. It was noted that Latinas only slightly changed their support.
Donald TrumpCRISTOBAL HERRERA-ULASHKEVICH/EPA/PAP
“The Hill” estimated that a 33 percentage point shift in favor of Republicans over four years must raise questions in the Democratic camp.
Trump also has an advantage in terms of total votes received nationwide. The gap is currently about five million, and if it holds, the politician will be the first Republican since George W. Bush in 2004 to win the popular vote.
4. The issue of abortion did not turn out to be crucial
Democrats hoped that the factor motivating women to vote for Kamala Harris – potentially the first woman as US president – would be the dispute over the right to terminate pregnancy, which broke out two years ago after the Supreme Court's ruling overturning the Roe vs. Wade ruling in 1973. Since then, many conservative states have tightened abortion laws.
However, this did not happen. “The Hill” pointed out that although the majority of women voted for Harris, exit polls so far indicate that the advantage is smaller than four years ago. In 2020 – according to CNN polls – women chose Biden by 15 percentage points over Trump. This year, Harris leads voters by just 10 percentage points.
Kamala Harris supporters in WashingtonPAP/EPA/WILL OLIVER
5. Rural voters are an even more powerful force
CNN assessed that Trump's return to the White House is largely influenced by rural counties. According to CNN statistics, in 2020 Donald Trump won in rural areas by 15 percentage points, while in 2024 the difference in favor of the Republican was already 27 points.
Although Kamala Harris in large cities she achieved a slightly larger advantage over Trump than Joe Biden (in 2020, a difference of 22 percentage points, in 2024 a difference of 23 percentage points), the Democrat fared worse in the suburbs, where Joe Biden won in 2020, obtaining result 2 percentage points better than Donald Trump. In 2024, the advantage was similarly slim, but this time the Republican triumphed.
Trump's lead in rural areas appears to have been too great to allow Harris to win. “Small numbers in the larger scheme of such a complex election may seem insignificant – but they add up. On Tuesday, the math appeared to be on Trump's side,” CNN concluded.
Donald Trump supportersPAP/EPA/CAROLINE BREHMAN
6. Republicans can take anything
Donald Trump will have a Republican majority in the Senate and quite possibly in the House of Representatives as well.
READ MORE: : Americans elected not only the president. How will the balance of power change in the US Congress?
The GOP's majority in the Senate became certain when Republican Bernie Moreno defeated Sherrod Brown, who had held the seat for 18 years in Ohio. Tim Sheehy also scored a victory over Democratic Sen. Jon Tester in Montana. This marks the third seat taken over by Republicans after Jim Justice won the seat in West Virginia, as expected, and will take over from Democratic senator Joe Manchin.
According to CNN, Republicans have so far secured 204 seats in the House of Representatives, and Democrats 182 (218 seats are needed to gain a majority in the house).
Main photo source: PAP/EPA/FRANCK ROBICHON