According to an average of polls drawn by the New York Times, US President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have an average of 46 percent approval each.
As “NYT” writes, the equal result just before Thursday's candidates' debate is good news for… Joe Bidenwhich in other nationwide averages polls slightly losing to Donald Trump for the last nine months.
A less optimistic picture for the incumbent president emerges from polls taking into account seven key states elections – Trump leads in all of them.
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Fighting for swing states
However, in three Rust Belt states – Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – Trump's lead is less than 2 percentage points. Winning these states while maintaining traditional Democratic strongholds will give Biden victory.
Donald Trump and Joe Biden will debate on ThursdayQubixStudio / Shutterstock
In the four remaining swing states – including Nevada, Georgia and Arizona, where Biden won in 2020 – Trump's lead is slightly larger: 4-5 points. percent “NYT” emphasizes that despite this, this year's polls show the most competitive election race in the last 20 years.
The newspaper also notes that the uncertainty about the final result is intensified by factors such as independent candidates (one of them, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., has more than 10 percent support in some polls), a large number of voters who dislike both candidates and the expected lower turnout.
However, the results from the “NYT” ranking paint a similar picture of electoral chances as the forecasts based on statistical models published by leading centers published in recent weeks.
Decision Desk HQ and The Hill's model gives Trump a 58 percent chance of winning, while The Economist's model gives him a 70 percent chance.
The only center that gives a slight advantage (51%) to Biden is ABC's FiveThirtyEight, which takes more into account non-poll factors such as economic data.
Main photo source: QubixStudio / Shutterstock