Donald Trump cannot end the war in Ukraine on his own, but he could start the process of negotiations between Moscow and Kiev, said analyst Dr. Jamie Shea, a former high-ranking NATO official. He noted that the future US president “likes quick victories” and “is not known for complicated, long-term negotiations.” The expert also said that Trump will not decide to cut off aid to Kiev, because it would significantly weaken his negotiating position. And – as he pointed out – “Trump doesn't want to look weak and lacking leverage.”
– Trump cannot end the war on his own. It depends on (Vladimir) Putin and (president Ukraine Volodymyr) Zelensky. If they decide to continue fighting, (Donald)Trump won't be able to do much about it, at least in the short term, said British analyst Dr. Jamie Shea, a former high-ranking official NATO.
He pointed out that ending the war is a very complicated issue unless neither side announces unconditional surrender. He pointed out that agreements on the withdrawal of troops and heavy weapons, exchange of prisoners, demilitarized zones, demining, and international supervision are needed. – This cannot be done in 24 hours – he noted.
In his opinion, “Trump could start a process of negotiations between Moscow and Kiev, which could be hosted, for example, by Türkiye, which previously played such a role.” – But many questions remain. What would be the peace plan USA? There is no such thing at the moment. How can Trump put pressure on Putin? More sanctions? Threats to arm Ukraine? – wondered the British expert.
As the president-elect said, “he likes quick victories, but he is not known for complicated, long-term negotiations and attention to detail.” In Shea's opinion, he may be more interested in the Middle East or Ukraine instead of Ukraine China.
“He will wait to see if he can bring Putin and Zelensky to the table.”
A former senior NATO official warned that peace talks could degenerate into “another Minsk process” and lead to “a frozen conflict in which the parties hold endless meetings, pretending to negotiate, while fighting continues, albeit with less intensity.”
The expert emphasized that Trump's cutting off support for Kiev at a time when possible peace talks have not even started would significantly weaken his negotiating position. – Trump doesn't want to appear weak and lacking leverage. Putin would not feel much pressure to make concessions. In fact, Trump threatened to give Ukraine more American weapons if Putin refused to negotiate, he added.
However, if Russia makes progress on the battlefield and can count on North Korean soldiers, Puitn may not feel the need to negotiate unless Ukraine agrees to major territorial concessions and draconian conditions, such as abandoning aspirations for EU and NATO membership and demilitarization. “This would be disastrous for Western security and unacceptable for Ukraine,” Shea added.
– My hunch is that Trump will not cancel current military transfers, training activities, or intelligence sharing immediately, but will wait to see if he can bring Putin and Zelensky to the negotiating table and assess which of them behaves more constructively – he spoke.
Significant military aid from America
He also pointed out that Trump will formally take power only on January 20 next year, which means that the outgoing presidential administration Joe Biden it still has a few months to “deliver as many weapons as possible to Ukraine” as part of the packages announced in recent weeks.
In his opinion, Biden must plan to spend the $9 billion planned for support for Ukraine as soon as possible to make it more difficult for Trump to withdraw it. The problem may be slow bureaucratic procedures and the fact that many of these weapons are yet to be produced.
– However, if Biden and his colleagues are able to speed up this process, Ukraine will be in a better position to deter the Russian advance and survive the winter, including defending its energy grid against Russian missiles and drones – the analyst emphasized.
Dr. Jamie Shea was a spokesman for NATO, among others. during the intervention of the North Atlantic Alliance in Kosovo in 1999, and in 2010-2018 he served as NATO Deputy Secretary General for new security challenges. Currently, he is associated with several scientific institutions, including: with the University of Exeter and the Chatham House think tank.
Main photo source: PAP/Alena Solomonova