War in Ukraine: BBC analysis: Russian offensive potential weakens

The Russian army has failed to achieve a breakthrough in recent weeks, but Kremlin forces managed to open a new front near Toretsk and are continuing a slow offensive in several sectors, trying to find a gap in the Ukrainian defense in the east, the analysis reads.

Military experts say it will take a lot of force to keep up the pace of the attack. Russia reaching for reserves. They also note signs of loss of firepower on the Russian side.

See also: What happened in Ukraine

Analyst Agil Rustamzade believes that thanks to the supplies of artillery ammunition, the fire ratio has changed from 1 to 5 (when Russia responded with five to one Ukrainian shot) to 1 to 3.

“The situation on the front is starting to change towards Ukraine's advantage in terms of firepower. But again, depending on the dynamics of supply to the Ukrainian army, this process may last a week or a month. But it is already visible that the pace of the Russian army's attack is decreasing,” he said.

The BBC writes that the most powerful Russian weapon remains the guided aerial bomb. Russian forces use up to a hundred of these bombs daily. The Ukrainian army, on the other hand, is still struggling with staffing problems and has not yet received all the promised aid from the West, including ammunition and aircraft. This is an obstacle to Ukrainian counter-offensive operations – the portal continues.

The greatest success of Russian troops in June was the launch of the attack on Toretsk. The BBC summarizes that since June 19, the Russian army has moved about 2 km towards the city and occupied its outskirts. The relatively slow pace of the offensive may be due to the fact that there is not a very large concentration of Russian troops operating in a given section. Experts estimate its number at approximately 10,000. soldiers

Analysts have listed Toretsk and Pokrovsk as potential main targets for a Russian summer offensive. The BBC notes that the latter is the last major stronghold of Ukrainian forces in the west Donbas. The Russian troops still have about 30 km to go to the city itself, but only a few kilometers separate them from the Pokrovsk-Konstantynowka route. Occupying a section of the route could lead to disruption of Ukrainian logistics routes.

The Russians have concentrated the largest attack group of troops in the Pokrov direction, which indicates that this is a priority section for the Kremlin. The BBC notes that on June 26, the President visited this direction Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky.

In the Kharkiv direction, near Wowczask and Lypciwy, Russian troops have been on defense for a long time, the website notes. According to the BBC, the situation is tipping in Kiev's favor due to the West allowing Ukraine to use Western weapons to attack Russian territory up to 100 km deep. 20th of June Vladimir Putin declared that the Kharkov direction is allegedly of no strategic importance for Russian forces.