War in Ukraine. Joe Biden's decision will not save Ukraine. The US was late

Ukraine has been seeking such a step for many months. The possibility of hitting Russian targets deep inside the country with American long-range weapons was one of the points of the “victory plan” that the president's entourage Volodymyr Zelensky introduced to Joe Biden this fall and Donald Trump. However, the Democratic administration assessed Kiev's proposal skeptically, and nothing has changed regarding the use of long-range missile systems.

The plot twist took place only in mid-November, over two months after President Zelensky's visit to… United States. White House agreed to use missile systems with a range of approximately 300 km ATACMS to hit targets located deep inside Russia.

Why this sudden change of position by… Washington? Three main scenarios appeared in the American media space after this decision.

First: Biden, who became a scapegoat after the defeat of the Democrats in the presidential election and will leave politics in two months, no longer cared, so he did something he had wanted to do for a long time.

Other: By giving the Ukrainians the green light to use American long-range weapons on Russian territory, Biden wanted to set a trap for Donald Trump, who took office in the second half of January. The president-elect would probably want to overturn his predecessor's decision, but if he did so, he would risk seriously weakening the Americans' negotiating position towards Vladimir Putin.

Third: Biden reacted to the change in the playing field by Russia, which introduced not only North Korean equipment but also North Korean soldiers into the fighting on the front. Thus, a new side officially joined the war. It happens to be one of the United States' greatest enemies.

Prof. Agnieszka Legucka, Russia analyst at PISM, In particular, he sees a combination of the first two reasons in the Americans' decision. – This move is something of a desperate last move by the outgoing president of the United States – he says in an interview with Interia.

– The Democrats' lost election, Biden's upcoming departure from politics and Russia's massive attacks on Russia seem to be crucial Ukraine in recent days – explains the expert. He specifies that in recent days the situation on the front was also damaged by the chancellor's telephone conversation German Olaf Scholza with Vladimir Putin.

– Russia's massive attacks have shown that if we invite Russians to peace talks, they will escalate the situation in Ukraine. Therefore, it is necessary to turn the situation around and, at least at this moment, show strength while stopping the Russians from attacking all of Ukraine – analyzes prof. Legucka.

Michał Kacewicz, author of books about the Putin regime and the war in Ukraine, notes that Washington's decision fits into the pattern of action of the Democratic administration, which assumes “dosed responses to escalatory moves by Russia.” This time the escalation was the inclusion of the North Koreans in the conflict.

– As the image of the war shows, this is the wrong approach, too conservative. Biden made a lot of mistakes in supporting Kiev – A Belsat journalist criticizes the American president. He also emphasizes that “Biden wanted to leave a good impression at the end, end his term on a strong note and show that his foreign policy was focused on aid for Ukraine.”

The conservative approach that Michał Kacewicz talks about to Interia is the direct reason that the Americans' decision will not have the same impact on the fate of the war as it could have if the White House had made it earlier. – Biden's consent came too late, and secondly, Ukraine has too few resources of these missiles – Kacewicz acknowledges the current situation. – It won't be a game changer – he adds.

Prof. has a similar opinion Legucka, which on the one hand, it indicates too few ATACMS systems in Ukrainian possession, and on the other – the relatively small range of these weapons. – To really change the balance of power in this war, it would have to involve a threat to the capital of Russia, i.e Moscow – emphasizes the PISM expert.

A range of 300 km means that the Ukrainian army will be able to attack such Russian cities as Belgorod, Bryansk, KurskRostov-on-Don, Smolensk or Voronezh. Although the list does not include key Russian metropolises such as Moscow, St. Petersburg, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg or Kazan, the Ukrainians can still make life very difficult for the aggressor's troops. Many Russian military bases, fuel bases, command centers, ammunition depots, logistics nodes and repair plants will be within the range of ATACMS systems.

– This will disorganize the Russian frontline and delay offensive actions. And yet Putin is also in a hurry because before Trump takes office he wants to have the best possible negotiating position, i.e. to occupy as much territory as possible and to push the Ukrainians out of the Kursk Oblast. – analyzes in an interview with Interia Kacewicz.

In turn, prof. Legucka points out that The Americans' move “may change not so much the situation on the front as Ukraine's negotiating position.” – The de-escalation strategy failed from the point of view of the assumptions regarding the displacement of Russian troops from Ukraine – says the Russia analyst.

Exactly strengthening both sides' positions before potential peace negotiations is today something that sleeps at night, let alone leading politicians The Kremlinboth here and in Kiev.

President Zelensky's administration hoped and hopes that by striking Russian targets deep inside the country with American missiles, it will be possible to keep Moscow in check. – The idea was to force Russia to negotiate a mutual refrain from missile and air attacks in the interior of the country. This was supposed to be an introduction to negotiations, but with the initiative on the Ukrainian side – Kiev would gain a certain advantage from the beginning and would be active – explains the intentions of the Ukrainians, Michał Kacewicz, a Belsat journalist and an expert on eastern policy.

However, the late decision of the White House and the very limited number of ATACMS systems in the possession of the Ukrainian armed forces significantly complicate matters for the Ukrainians. Especially in this specific game of chess Putin and company are also negotiating very high. They have just used the RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile on the front, for the first time in history, but with a conventional warhead. Moreover, they are intensifying bombing raids and missile attacks on objects throughout Ukraine. – Russia will bid higher because it has more arguments – a larger and more diverse arsenal. It will also intensify air attacks, which we have already observed in recent days, Kacewicz predicts.

There is one more thing, that is official announcement of changes in the Russian nuclear doctrine. It took place several dozen hours after the White House's decision about the Ukrainians using American long-range weapons to hit targets deep inside Russia.

– Russia is taking advantage of the Americans' decision regarding ATACMS systems – there is no doubt in Prof. Agnieszka Legucka from PISM. – The Kremlin is conducting a psychological operation on Russian and, above all, Western societies, which have been fed with Russian propaganda for a long time. – says the Russia analyst. He adds: – Unfortunately, recently it has also been taken up by Republicans, who repeat its key theses.

Michał Kacewicz emphasizes that the game of modifying the Russian nuclear doctrine is not about unleashing World War III and the annihilation of humanity. If Putin's plan was to use even tactical nuclear weapons, he would have done so long ago. – It is a means of putting pressure on Western politicians and societies. In Putin's perception, it is a kind of special operation aimed at gaining an advantage – explains the author of books about the Putin regime and the war in Ukraine.

– Contrary to what we often hear, Putin is not a risk-taker or a gambler – continues the Interia interlocutor. The aim of the aggression against Ukraine was to renegotiate the zone of influence with the West Europe. The Russian dictator wanted to regain control over Central and Eastern Europe by stopping political expansion European Union i NATO. The use of nuclear blackmail is intended to intimidate Western societies and strengthen Putin's negotiating position before talks with Ukraine, which will take place sooner or later.

– This is to give Putin the final trump card: if you do not agree to my conditions, Ukraine will defend itself and you help it, then I will reach for nuclear weapons – Kacewicz analyzes. He adds, however, that Putin is treading on thin ice, because provoking NATO into a powerful conventional strike would be the last thing he wants. – Despite everything, partners are always needed to divide the proceeds. Weakened and terrified, but partners – Interia's interlocutor concludes.