This year, there has been a lot of emotion about layoffs, especially group layoffs, but high-profile examples of job cuts are not the full story. the image of the labor market. According to the Central Statistical Office data, the overall situation is good (if there is any deterioration, it is from very good to good), and other reports indicate that companies want to hire still this year.
Where is the work? This is where companies want to hire
Such a report is ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Barometer for Q4 2024, published a few days ago. This is a survey based on interviews with a representative sample of 525 employers operating in Poland. It shows that the net employment forecast for our country for the last quarter of this year is +15 percent This means that employers who want to hire have a 15% advantage over those who plan to lay off workers (this is important, it is not about the number of jobs). workand the number of employers). This is the same as a quarter earlier, although slightly less (by 2 percentage points) than a year ago.
– We see a revival on the market, more job offers, although of course not in all industries or fields – says Piotr Skierkowski, labor market expert, corporate sales director at ManpowerGroup to Next.gazeta.pl.
It's all about three industries or industry groups: 1. transport, logistics & automotive, 2. IT, 3. consumer goods & services.
We notice this primarily in logistics. This may be due to seasonality, among other things. We are approaching the fourth quarter, when consumption will increase. The IT industry is a slightly separate topic. Firstly, it is now being fuelled more by investments in digitalisation. Secondly, we can see the beginning of a rebound after the deep post-covid reductions.
– explains Piotr Skierkowski.
How does it look in detail? More than one third – 35 percent of companies in Poland – he intends to employ new employees, 19 percent I'm planning dismissals, 42% are not planning any changes in the fourth quarter of this year, and 4% do not know their plans in this regard yet. Net employment is expected to grow the most in medium-sized companies, employing from 50 to 249 people (+28%) and larger companies, employing from 250 to 999 people (+23%).
In the transport sector mentioned above, this indicator (net employment) is +28 percent, in IT +27 percent, in the “consumer goods & services” sector +25 percent, in “industry and raw materials” +23 percent, “life sciences & healthcare” +16 percent and “finance and services” +25 percent. real estate” +5 percent
Poland divided
Geographically, there is certainly a division between eastern and western Poland. On the eastern wall, everyone is probably waiting for the end of the war. There, the construction and logistics industries will develop, focused on rebuilding Ukraine's infrastructure.
– says the ManpowerGroup expert.
The company takes into account regions in its study, according to the Eurostat division (not individual provinces). The western wall in particular draws attention. In the region Northwest (covering the Wielkopolska, West Pomeranian and Lubuskie voivodeships) the employment rate is +23 percent IN three regions: Center (Łódź and Masovian Voivodeships), Midnight (Kuyavian-Pomeranian, Warmian-Masurian and Pomeranian) and Southwest (Lower Silesia and Opole) is +18 percent Region eastern (Lublin, Subcarpathia, Świętokrzyskie and Podlaskie) has an employment rate of +12 percent., and south (Lesser Poland and Silesia) +7 percent
Let's remember: this study and report are only about the prospects of increasing (or decreasing) employment, not about assessing the general situation on the labor market or wages. Such data – about unemployment and salaries – we also have (from GUS or the Ministry of Labor) and the maps regarding them look a bit different. We write about it in the texts: Strange Summer on the Job Market. What's Happening? “Trees Don't Grow to the Sky” and Where in Poland do you “really” earn the most? A few counties may surprise you.
Some people want to slow down. Why?
The ManpowerGroup report shows that in two sectors, companies planning layoffs outnumber those preparing recruitment at the end of this year.Energy & Utilities” recorded an employment rate of -24 percentand “communication services” -31 percent. What does this result from?
– In energy and municipal services it was planned to build teams, accumulate human resources, in anticipation of huge investments that were to come quickly. This mainly concerns Investments based on funds from KPObut their transfer was delayed, moved to next year, even rather to its second half. Large investments are yet to start. So what we see now in our index is simply a quick correction of plans. It so happens that in the first quarter of this year, the highest growth forecast was for the energy and municipal services sector – explains Piotr Skierkowski. Another element of risk for companies is added to this: legislation related to the energy transformation, which, according to the ManpowerGroup expert, may not fully facilitate investments. Piotr Skierkowski also has an interesting comment regarding state-owned companies:
Large state-owned companies, mainly related to mining, but not only them, can now look for cost optimizations in their “non-core” segments of activity. Such companies are under great pressure to show better results, and they have very extensive staff in many areas. The boards of these companies can therefore look for organizational savings
– thinks.
Mass layoffs are scary – is this already a trend?
A lot of attention is drawn to the information that appears quite often about group layoffs in Polish companies. Experts – including our interviewee from ManpowerGroup – emphasize that these are point problemsand not a manifestation of a new, dangerous phenomenon on the labor market.
– Notification of layoffs is a procedure, it is not information about the fact that at the moment we are laying off so many people. This is a procedure that is carried out in large and medium-sized companies, in conditions when these companies are planning restructuring. This means that they report the maximum pool of people that this restructuring can cover. This procedure is not always carried out in one year, sometimes it is spread over several years – explained Andrzej Kubisiak from the Polish Economic Institute in an interview with Next.gazeta.pl.
The expert pointed out that we are talking about reporting the maximum number of layoffs – which may not always turn out to be necessary in the end. – Last year, in 2023, when I remind you that we were close to a recession in Poland, we had 32 thousand group layoffs reported during the year, of which 19 thousand were implemented – he emphasized. He also noted that the number of positions reported for reduction as part of group layoffs is not unusual and looks similar to the last decade (we attach the entire conversation at the beginning of this article).
Piotr Skierkowski thinks similarly. – The problems concern individual companies, for example in the automotive sectorwhich is in global trouble. Generally, based on data, also from the market, we see an advantage of the number of employment over layoffs – he emphasizes. In his opinion, one aspect of this phenomenon may be a bit worrying – Group layoffs, especially in the automotive industry, are sometimes related to closing factoriesthese plants cease to exist. This may also be related to the dynamically growing labor costs in Poland in the last few years. However, these are still point signals – the expert emphasizes. He also has a very interesting observation:
We do have more notifications of group layoffs to the district labor offices than a year ago, but the number of employees subject to these announcements is smaller. This may also indicate that, based on the more numerous media reports, one may get the impression that there is a problem with group layoffs in Poland.
There is one more interesting fact. – If employees of a production plant are laid off somewhere, they are absorbed by the local labor market almost immediately. Employers prefer to take over such employees than look for people to fill vacancies, for example, from abroad. borderwhich is a bigger challenge, including in terms of costs and organization. Employers often even contact each other – the one who wants to hire, with the one who plans to lay off – Skierkowski tells us.