Who is Herbert Kickl. A strong position and a model from Budapest. “Significant risk of exchange rate change”

On Monday, the president Austria Alexander Van der Bellen he entrusted the mission of forming a new government to Herbert Kickelleader of the far-right, Eurosceptic, anti-immigration and pro-Russian Austrian Freedom Party (FPOe). He did it after the weekend failure of coalition negotiations led by the former leader of the Austrian People's Party (OeVP), Karl Nehammer.

At the press conference, the president explained that new circumstances had emerged on the Austrian political scene, which made it possible to appoint a libertarian leader as chancellor.

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Jakub Bielamowicz has a similar opinion, explaining that “due to the resignation of the chancellor and OeVP leader Karl Nehammer, a real possibility of forming an FPOe-OeVP coalition government has opened up.” The analyst recalled that “it was Nehammer who was the most ardent opponent of elevating the 'extremist' Kickel to the position of chancellor.”

He pointed out that after Nehammer stepped down, the interim head of the Christian Democratic OeVP was Christian Stocker, the deputy mayor of Wiener Neustadt, who is considered a second-ranking man and is characterized by a pragmatic approach to political tasks. Stocker himself declared on Sunday that if his party is invited to coalition negotiations, the People's Party will take part in these talks.

– It is worth noting that the FPOe's negotiating position will be very strong – emphasized Bielamowicz, pointing to the record-breaking ratings of libertarians. The last one polls they give them 6-8 percentage points more than they achieved in the September elections. – Kickl and FPOe negotiators will always be able to threaten their readiness to participate in early elections, after which their position as a larger coalition partner would be even stronger – explained the analyst.

He pointed to concerns about a possible OeVP-FPOe cabinet. – The experience so far with the “black-blue” coalitions of these parties from 2000-2007 and 2017-2019 is very bad. These governments were accompanied by considerable instability, numerous corruption scandals and poor personnel decisions, especially on behalf of the FPOe, Bielamowicz recalled.

He suggested that libertarians, strengthened by the recent failure of mainstream parties (OeVP, SPOe and NEOS), may become even more radical after taking power. – Actions by this party aimed at weakening the rule of law cannot be ruled out, especially since certain attempts have already been made in ministries previously controlled by FPOe politicians – he emphasized.

Bielamowicz pointed out that the libertarian leader does not hide who his political role model is: – Herbert Kickl is strongly inspired by the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, which he openly admits in public statements.

He also pointed to the threats resulting from the pro-Russian sympathies of the potential new chancellor. – There is a significant risk of course correction in Austria's foreign policy – he said. He recalled that in 2016, the FPOe signed a friendship agreement with Putin's United party Russiaand also constantly expresses opposition to supporting the fight against Russian aggression Ukraine.

The analyst also pointed out that none other than the former head of Austrian diplomacy on behalf of the FPOe, Karin Kneissl, invited to her wedding Vladimir Putin. – After everything, she fled to Russia, where she became a propagandist for the local regime media – he noted.

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Despite this, Bielamowicz sees light at the end of the tunnel. – A representative of a more moderate Christian Democrat taking over the Ministry of Foreign Affairs may have a certain mitigating effect on the foreign policy of a potential government with the participation of the FPOe – he predicts.

Chancellor Nehammer announced his resignation as head of government and chairman of the conservative OeVP on Saturday after the failure of negotiations to form a government coalition without the FPOe. Earlier, the chancellor's party made one last attempt at coalition talks with the Social Democrats.

In the parliamentary elections held on September 29, FPOe won with 28.8 percent. votes. In second place was the previously ruling OeVP (26.3%), followed by SPOe (21.1%), the liberal NEOS (New Austria and Liberal Forum; 9.2%) and the Greens (8.3%). .).

Despite the victory of the libertarians, President Van der Bellen entrusted the current chancellor, Nehammer, with the mission of creating a new government. He explained this decision by the fact that the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats had definitely ruled out joining the government headed by the FPOe leader.