– The exit poll results after the first round are very close to what the polls showed us. Only the president's party has it approximately two percentage points morethan the pre-election polls showed – comments Amanda Dziubińska, an analyst for Interia, in an interview. France w Polish Institute of International Affairs.
The above-mentioned exit poll favors the far-right National Union 34 percent of votes, left-wing New Popular Front can count on 28.1 percent. Presidential party Revival is in third place with 20.3 percent.
– The turnout is no surprise. We have significantly above 60 percent. It seems that This is the highest turnout since 1997. We will therefore have many duels in which there will be more than two candidates in the second round – our interlocutor emphasizes.
French Elections: Key Strategy for Round Two
The French elect deputies to 577 districts, by majority vote. Those candidates who won at least 12.5% in the first round move on to fight for a seat in each district. votes. Elections in a given district may be decided in the first round only if one of the candidates wins more than 50%. votes.
– Most often, there will be three-person fights. Political parties now declare how they will behave and what strategy they will choose. The Republican Party (exit poll 10.2% of votes) has already announced that he does not intend to give his voters instructions for the second round. Leader of the far left France Untamed Jean-Luc Melenchon, on behalf of the left-wing bloc, says that his party's candidates who make it to the second round but are not in a leading position, they will withdraw to ally against the National Union – Dziubińska emphasizes.
Earlier, similar declarations were made by other left-wing formations: the Communist Party and the Greens.
– We can see calls from both the left and probably from the presidential camp to…do everything to stop the far-right's march to power – points out the expert.
Marine Le Pen's Great Success. The French Prime Minister Has Already Lost
Marine Le Pen has reasons to be satisfied not only because of the result of his formation. The leader won the mandate in the first round in her district.
– This is her great success. In a very conciliatory way, she calls on the French to unite and consistently choose the National Union in the coalition of “freedom and unity” in the second round – comments Dziubińska.
The PISM analyst emphasizes that only one thing is certain for now, and this is what politicians of both the left and the right are saying. – Gabriel Attal will no longer be prime minister, because third place, result of 20 percent. support, this is not a mandate to predict that Attal will keep his position – says our interlocutor.
Emmanuel Macron is targeting an “informal” alliance
Shortly after the first round poll results were announced, Emmanuel Macron wrote about construction “broad alliance” in order to stop the right wing. Could this mean cooperation between his group and the left?
– The alliance, if any, will be informal.. I think that the president rather wanted both the left and the political center to try to play the second round in such a way as not to scatter the votes of moderate voters, to weaken the far right and strengthen the opponent. It would be best if it was one opponent – assesses Dziubińska.
The National Union will be able to count on independent government if it wins an absolute majority in the National Assembly. That's 289 seats. The first exit poll results prepared by Ipsos gave the far-right formation between 230 and 280 seats.
– Then continue a likely scenario is that none of the parties will have an absolute majority. There is still room for the far right to mobilize or capture voters, and there is also a chance to stop the far right's march to an absolute majority – believes Amanda Dziubińska.
Stay updated and become one of over 200,000 followers of our fanpage – like Interia Events on Facebook and comment on our articles there!