A month and a half before the US presidential election, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are still tied in support, according to the latest polls. In a new nationwide survey, both received the same result. However, in individual states, the current vice president may count on a slight advantage. What about the key ones?
According to the report published on Thursday survey The New York Times, The Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena College Kamala, Harris and Donald Trump enjoy identical support. Each of them declared that they would vote for 47 percent of the survey participants. The survey was conducted between September 11 and 16 on a group of 2,437 potential voters. Its margin of error was set at 3 percentage points, which means that both candidates could win.
Polls: Harris Leads in Pennsylvania
In the key states considered to be crucial to winning, such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, the results also indicate a close duel. Political observers are particularly keen to watch the last of these states, as the vote here could prove decisive. It is not without reason that the vote was held here. the only debate so far between candidates.
The latest poll for The Washington Post put Harris ahead of Trump in Pennsylvania by 1 percentage point, with the vice president ahead and a margin of error of 3.6 points. In the same state, a poll by The New York Times, The Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena College gave Harris a 4-point lead. The poll's margin of error was 3.8 points.
According to the latest NYT poll, the most important issues for American voters are: the economy, abortion, immigration and democracy. The importance of the latter was also indicated by those surveyed by The Washington Post. However, they saw different candidates as the person capable of defending democracy. 48 percent of respondents saw Kamala Harris in this role, and 45 percent saw Donald Trump.
When asked who would handle the economy and immigration better, respondents were more likely to point to Trump. On abortion, they were more likely to choose Harris. The vast majority of registered voters surveyed by The Washington Post — 93 percent — said they would vote in the November 5 election. 78 percent of Pennsylvania voters surveyed said they were “extremely motivated” to vote.
The specifics of American elections
Due to the specific nature of the American electoral system, polls cannot indicate USA on the certain outcome of the election. The candidate who wins more support in the country does not always win. This is because presidential elections in the USA are indirect, not direct. In each state, voters formally vote for electors of the Democratic Party, the Republican Party or another candidate. Then, in each state, each party wins a different number of electoral votes and these are added up on a national scale (50 states and the capital District Colombia) to 538. The majority needed to win the race to the White House is 270 Electoral College votes. And obtaining this majority is possible without winning a nominal majority of votes nationwide.
This system means that the outcome of the presidential election is most often decided by votes in so-called swing states, where sometimes the Republican candidate wins the election, and sometimes the Democrat. This year, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are considered key from a victory perspective.
Reuters, The Washington Post, “The New York Times”, tvn24.pl
Main image source: PAP/EPA/JIM LO SCALZO