Official reports said that prisoners released since July had been pardoned. They also indicated that they were elderly or suffering from illnesses, although this was not always the case.
On September 16, it was reported pardoning 37 political prisoners in a “gesture of humanism”. We continue more than 1,300 people remain behind barsand the number of new political prisoners is increasing.
Lukashenko names prisoners. “An attempt to rebuild recognition”
– Trying to guess the motives Alexander Lukashenko experts reach for different explanations. For me, the most convincing is an attempt to rebuild at least partial recognition in the context of next year's “presidential” elections – said Alaksandr Kłaskouski, a publicist associated with the independent information portal Pozirk.
Speaking about next year's campaign, in which Lukashenko intends to extend his rule once again, Klaskouski noted that the same the elections are to be an attempt at “re-legitimization”.
– He hopes that the West will come to terms with their results and gradually be convinced that “what happened in 2020, happened, this term is over, we need to turn the page and move on,” the analyst says.
According to him, “Lukashenka wants to loosen the noose around his neck a little bit. Vladimir Putin“.
Prisoner exchange. Lukashenko wants to draw the attention of the West. Expert points to elections
– This is why he would like at least some gestures from Western countrieswhich could be presented as recognition. It could be some kind of meeting, visit, not necessarily high level, or – in a more optimistic scenario for him – return of western ambassadors – says Klaskouski.
He pointed out that recently the authorities Belarus “signal” readiness to talk about illegal migration (which Minsk uses to put pressure on Poland and the entire EU – ed.).
– Of course, this signaling at various levels is done in the propaganda style typical of Minsk, the narrative of “death on the border” is maintained and criticism of the Polish authorities, while at the same time emphasizing “readiness for dialogue” on the part of Minsk. Objectively, the number of illegal migrants attacking the borders has decreased recently, although it cannot be ruled out that this was also the result of the involvement Chininterested in the uninterrupted transit of their goods, said Kłaskouski.
Belarus. Expert spoke about Lukashenka's actions. “Image considerations”
As he added, among the motives that could have persuaded Lukashenko to release several groups of political prisoners, there were certainly “image considerations”.
– Inside the country it is presented as a humanitarian gesture, part of Lukashenko's pre-election facelift. In a sense, it can also be an attempt to send a signal that the situation is “normalizing” – the analyst calculated.
He noted that for now there can be no talk of any change in the operation of the repression apparatus, and the “siloviki” are the group that is most interested in maintaining the current situation.
– They can prove themselves, write reports, gain new stars. When repression continues, they are needed – the expert reminded.
– Some commentators, especially those opposing the authorities, triumphantly announce that the release of prisoners is the result of sanctions. In my opinion, this is not very convincing, because the economic situation in Belarus is currently satisfactory for the authorities. Of course, this happened at the price of reorienting the economy to Russiabut Lukashenko does not feel any burning economic pressure for now, the interlocutor added.
Prisoner Exchange for Recognition: Expert Explains
According to the expert, any gestures from the West would give Lukashenka another benefit. – He could present it as propaganda an argument for the marginalization of democratic centers in exilesurroundings Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya – he explained.
Although today – after the suppression of protests in 2020 and support for Russian aggression against Ukraine – dependence on Moscow is incomparably greater than during the elections in 2015 or 2010, Lukashenko is trying to “play the same game.”
– This is an attempt to maneuver, to signal that he has not lost his subjectivity. This is still an action in the old known logic – transactional, commercial. In those campaigns it worked – Lukashenko released political prisoners in exchange for recognitionmaintaining some form of cooperation. For now, however, it seems that the scale of gestures from Minsk does not convince Western governments. There is still a huge number of political prisoners in prisons, there are new arrests and new sentences. There is no indication that the trend of maintaining repression would reverse – concluded Kłaskouski.
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