The alarming effects of a four-day work week. “Serious Problems”

As the authors of the report point out, an increase in productivity compensating for the shortening of working time to four days a week (while maintaining wages equivalent to five days of work) is unrealistic to achieve in most industries and professions.

“Although better work organization after shortening the working week may allow to increase productivity in some office jobs, employees in most types of services and industry are not able to perform their work 25 percent faster. This especially applies to professions requiring manual tasks or spatial mobility, such as hairdresser, driver or nurse,” wrote the IBS study.

“To maintain GDP at the same level, it would be necessary to employ additional employees. Without this, the reduction in working time would translate into lower production and lower total income, and therefore, lower wages,” it added.

According to IBS, in most professions, reducing working hours by 20%, from five to four days a week, would require employing an additional 25%. employees to do the same job while maintaining the same efficiency. As the authors of the report point out, this is due to the fact that newly hired employees would also work four days a week.

According to IBS analysts, due to demographic reasons, employee shortages will deepen in Poland, even if the five-day working week is maintained.

“Employment structure forecasts predict a shortage of employees in 21 of 39 occupational groups in the 2040 horizon. Shortening working time would cause a shortage in all 39 occupational groups, especially in services. In the private sector, the greatest shortage of drivers and construction workers will occur. In services, the provision of which the state plays the main role, deficits are expected, among others, among specialists and secondary health personnel,” the report wrote.

“The introduction of a four-day working week would multiply the upcoming labor shortages. For example, the expected deficit of nurses, midwives and paramedics would increase more than three times, that of doctors by four times, drivers by 4.5 times, and construction workers by six times,” it added .

The authors of the report indicate that technological progress, including the development of AI technology, may in the future reduce the labor intensity and demand for work in many professions, but primarily in office jobs and those based on cognitive work, i.e. generally other than those in which shortening working time would deepen the shortages. employees.

According to analysts, reducing working hours to four days a week would make it impossible to provide high-quality public services in Poland now.

“There are 93,000 police officers on duty in Poland, and the number of vacancies that remain unfilled is 16,000. A four-day working week would mean that the number of unfilled vacancies in the police would increase to approximately 43,000. Also in health care, employee shortages are already visible – 72% of hospitals declare a shortage of nurses. Moreover, the age structure of nurses is very unfavorable,” the report states.

“In 2022, 20 percent of working nurses have reached retirement age (60 years old), and another 40 percent are at least 50 years old. However, reducing working hours to four days a week would require employing another 49,000 nurses to maintain the level of services at the current level. level,” it added.

According to analysts, introducing a four-day working week in Poland would be a premature decision.

“It would lead to a decline in Poles' income and serious problems for the state in providing public services. First of all, state interventions should help reduce working time for people who would like to work shorter hours than expected by their employer,” the report wrote.

“Employees' rights to refuse to work overtime should be increased and the competences of the National Labor Inspectorate in the area of ​​overtime control should be strengthened. Moreover, employees' rights to reduce working hours should be strengthened,” it added.