Wojciech Górecki is probably the most outstanding Polish expert on the Caucasus. He is a journalist, reporter and analyst at the Center for Eastern Studies. On the day of the inauguration of the Georgian parliament, accompanied by violent opposition protests, we talk to Górecki about the troubled region and, among others, about whether the Georgian Dream party is pro-Russian. We also move a little further east to talk about the author's latest book: “The Eternal State. A Story about Kazakhstan.”
Maciej Słomiński, Interia: I found an article in one of the newspapers from April this year saying that “Russia is withdrawing from the Caucasus”. This is probably out of date, because the latest news is that Russia wants to formally annex Abkhazia and South Ossetia, i.e. the parts of Georgia it illegally occupied..
Wojciech Górecki, journalist, reporter, OSW analyst: – Of course, Russia is not retreating. The Abkhazians do not love Russia, but they base their statehood or rather “parastatehood” on it. There are no anti-Russian politicians there, and during the recent protests, even though they are actually aimed at the interests of big brother and neighbor, “Rassiya!” was chanted in chorus.
What were these protests about?
– Abkhazia is a very attractive tourist area, it is the Caucasian Riviera. In Soviet times, it was, next to Crimea, the best and most prestigious place to relax. Stalin and all the top brass had dachas there. The Russians really want to have Abkhazian land. Hence the proposed z Russia investment agreement.
– It provided for, among other things, transferring at least 2 billion rubles (approx. USD 20 million) to entities that will invest in Abkhazia, plots of land and granting them ownership rights to the facilities erected on them. The citizens of Abkhazia want to have independence, and if this law came into force, in a second they would be nobody in their own home.
After these protests, the president of Abkhazia, Aslan Bzhaniya, resigned from his position and was to leave for Moscow.
– Abkhazians are attached to their independence. There is pluralism there, there is an opposition, there are elections that are not always won by the one Moscow chooses, even though Russian troops are stationed there. The opposition took to the streets to protest against the agreement with Russia and led to the president's resignation. Of course, this topic will come back in some time, I have no doubt about it, a developer will come in and beautiful Russian 50-story skyscrapers will be built.
Russia is right next door, they are doomed to it and they have to sort out their relations somehow.
~ Wojciech Górecki
– Now the Russians didn't want to go “on a rampage”, but they could crush any protests in 10 minutes if they wanted. They have other character problems to worry about right now Ukrainy.
From our Polish point of view, it is incomprehensible that v Georgia For the umpteenth time, the pro-Russian Georgian Dream party wins the elections after what Georgians have historically received from Russia, including the last war in 2008.
– Perhaps they are pro-Russian in our eyes, but they certainly do not advertise themselves this way for Georgian needs. The program of this group includes rapprochement with the West and normalization of relations with Russia. Abkhazia and South Ossetia are occupied, there are no diplomatic relations, but this does not prevent us from doing business. Quite recently, I talked to Georgian farmers who would be happy to sell their products to Europe, but the price will be five times more expensive and no one will buy it, and Russia is right next to them and will buy everything.
The Georgian Dream Party is scaring society that the opposition will lead to war, and the trauma of the 2008 conflict is very strong. Those in power say that the Americans will want to arm Georgia, which will certainly cause a conflict, but everyone wants peace. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, tens of thousands of Russians have emigrated to Georgia.
– Their number is estimated at 100,000. They live normally, speak their own way, of course there are some anti-Russian incidents, but generally no one bothers them. Russians and Georgians have in common the Orthodox religion. Perhaps we perceive people from the Caucasus as wild and passionate, but they can be very reasonable. Georgians know that Europe will not help them, and Russia is right next door, they are doomed to it and they have to sort out their relations somehow.
– Bidzina Ivanishvili shows that it is possible. There are many indications that in these elections, those in power tweaked the results a bit and in reality their triumph was not so decisive, but there is no doubt that they won.
Isn't it the case that the Georgian opposition is very weak, hence the triumph of the Georgian Dream?
– It is fragmented and lacks a leader like Mikheil Saakashvili, who is currently in a Georgian prison. It is known that this is a political matter, but let's face it, the former president of Georgia was not a teddy bear, he had his ears covered.
What is the current situation in Georgia? Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili even talks about possible dual power.
– The elections were on October 26, but the final results were announced only on the previous Saturday. The inaugural session of parliament will take place on November 25, i.e. today, and the protests will certainly intensify on that day. However, it seems that the opposition's fuel is running out. The protests number 20-30 thousand people each. If half a million were on the streets, the competition would be over.
– The president's term is coming to an end, and she is more of a cabinet politician, and she stood on the barricades due to lack of formality. Protests against the law on foreign agents copied from Russia also fizzled out over time, so I estimate the chances of success of the current protests at about 10 percent. Unless, for example, the police are very brutal and, God forbid, one of the protesters is killed, then the protests will come back with a vengeance.
We, Poles, are always happy when a Russian bear gets its paws kicked – is there a reason to be happy that the traditionally pro-Russian Armenia lost the war with Azerbaijan in 2020?
– Because of the sanctions, it is more important to Russia than Armenia Türkiyeand therefore Azerbaijan. At the expense of Armenia, it reaches an agreement with the above-mentioned countries. Therefore, Yerevan turned to the West. He is still technically in organizations related to Moscow, such as the Collective Security Treaty Organization, but he says loudly that he wants to European Union.
Armenians feel that Russia has abandoned them and betrayed them, so they have to find another partner.
~ Wojciech Górecki
– Research shows that fewer and fewer Armenians like Russia, although there are still quite a lot of them. Historically, the best relations are with France, military aid comes from France, there is an EU mission in the country, and the EU is monitoring Armenian aspirations.
– Armenia is talking about submitting an official application for EU membership. This is a breakthrough because Russia is still strong in the region, has a military base, controls the entire Armenian economy, energy, etc. But Russia is involved elsewhere. Armenians feel that Russia has abandoned them and betrayed them, so they have to find another partner. That is why they are looking for and cooperating with Iran, but they would also like to have a strong presence in the West, hence the contacts with France, where there has always been a large and influential diaspora.
We know more or less what Trump's victory in the US means for Ukraine, and what does it mean for the Caucasus?
– There is a Trump Tower in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan – it is a purely business project, it has nothing to do with politics. In the USA, as in France, there is a strong Armenian lobby. For them, the Congress is more important, they count how many congressmen have Armenian roots and what can be done thanks to it. Georgia, in turn, has hope for Trump, believes that Republicans may be less concerned about human rights and such modern inventions. They hope that it will be possible to reach a business agreement with the new authorities.
I wanted to ask about your latest book, titled “The Eternal State. The Story of Kazakhstan”. I was there once at a match and Kazakhs talked about Russia with indulgence, but about China with respect, even fear.
– Kazakhstan is very interestingly located between Russia and China. He wants to balance Russian influence in relations with China. This country certainly positions itself as a European country, which is helped by participation in competitions under the aegis of UEFA. Kazakhstan knows that if something bad happens, the West will not help them. But if there are oil companies there, London or Paris will be interested.
Do you think Russia will pose a real threat to Kazakhstan?
– These countries have a border that is almost seven thousand kilometers long. In the north of Kazakhstan, i.e. on the Russian side, there are cities where Kazakh is not spoken, but Russian all the time. There are 70 percent Kazakhs in the country, but when the USSR collapsed, there were 50 percent, and in the 1950s only 30 percent. Most of them were Russians, there were 100 deported nations, Poles, Germans, etc. Many Russian politicians, led by Dmitry Medvedev, said that Kazakhstan was an artificial state. The same chant as in Ukraine.
– In the book, I describe almost 30 years of my trips to Kazakhstan, but its axis is the trip from 2022, when the war was already going on. I describe how Kazakhs were scared lest the fate of Ukraine would meet them. Hence the turn towards China and strong cooperation with the West.
Finally, I wanted to ask about the phenomenon of Georgian and Armenian bakeries in Poland? Have you researched where we got so many of these places from?
– Bakeries are usually Armenian, but they are run by Armenians not from Armenia, but from Georgia. We have good associations with Georgia, hence the country's signs. There were books by Marcin Meller, also mine, a lot of people started visiting and liking Georgia, Armenians take advantage of it. In Warsaw, the largest chain is managed by a guy who is a Georgian Armenian, and there is a large Armenian minority in Georgia.
– I don't know if you know, but Georgians are the largest group of prisoners in Poland – in terms of proportions. The largest number of prisoners is Ukrainians, but the largest number of Georgians is in relation to the number of people who came to Poland. They go broad when it comes to business, not always legal. To answer your question – these Georgian-Armenian bakeries are pure business. There is demand for it in Poland, so there is also supply.