Christmas weather. Will Christmas be white?

In the calculations of the American GFS meteorological model, the weather in the pre-Christmas period is intertwined – alternating wedges of heat and bays of cold. Just before Christmas, a well-developed tongue of cold will most likely appear over Poland.

– The cold from the Arctic is expected to move to our region of Europe around December 20 and last until Christmas Eve. It will bring both a drop in temperature and snowfall, generally wet, of light and moderate intensity – explained tvnmeteo.pl forecaster Arleta Unton-Pyziołek.

The model shows that the temperature at an altitude of 1.5 kilometers may drop from about -5 to -8 degrees Celsius, which during the night means a drop from -3 to -5 degrees Celsius at the ground, and in the afternoons it increases to 0-4 degrees Celsius. C. Arctic air will flow to us, but with maritime characteristics, not too harsh, although carrying a hint of winter and a lot of clouds that completely cover the sky.

At the same time, the forecasts clearly show a warm wedge over western Europe, with the temperature at an altitude of 1.5 km being around 0-5 degrees Celsius. The forecaster explained that with such strong variability in air circulation that we are currently observing, it will have to reach us sooner or later – and during the holidays.

– On December 24, there is a chance that cold weather will remain over Poland, with cloudy skies and light snowfall in the south. In the afternoon, the temperature is expected to be quite even and may rise to 1-3 degrees. At night, a warm front may move from Germany over Poland with a wide area of ​​wet snow and sleet. So there would be a chance that during Midnight Mass in the west of the country and Pomerania the landscape would turn delightfully white – added Unton-Pyziołek.

On Christmas Day, the front is likely to move over the eastern half of the country, bringing wet snow and sleet. And it can get wintery there for a while, at least outside the cities. Temperature east of the line Vistula it may stay around zero, but in the west it could rise to at least 5 degrees Celsius under generally cloudy skies. The temperature in western Poland could therefore deviate positively above the long-term norm by about 5 degrees.

– The weather in the coming days will be controlled by North Atlantic cyclones. Both the American GFS model and the European ECMWF agree on the primary role of dynamic low-pressure whirlpools during Christmas, the forecaster explained.

The European model gives a good chance for one of such whirlpools to penetrate deep into the continent and dive over Finland during the holidays. Such a cyclone would attract moderately warm polar-marine air masses from the north-west, while carrying wind gusts of up to 60-70 kilometers per hour. Even if the temperature during the holidays increased to 5-7 degrees Celsius in the west, strong winds would significantly affect the temperature sensation.

The large pressure differences predicted by ECMWF between the high pressure over France and the low pressure over Scandinavia will be reflected in a strong density of isobars – also over Poland. This situation in the pressure field means stormy weather with a whole range of phenomena typical of later autumn. Even if snow falls around Christmas Eve or Christmas, it won't stick, at least according to the latest forecasts.