Emmanuel Macron in Poland. European diplomacy like an “ambulance”

President's visit France in Poland can be analyzed from two aspects. The first is the benefits of each leader for the purposes of national politics. Let's add, the benefits needed.

Donald Tusk he wants to look his best on the anniversary of taking power. Meanwhile Emmanuel Macron is struggling with a political crisis following the fall of the government. According to the latest CSA survey for Europe 1 and “Journal du Dimanche”, 59 percent The French are in favor resignation of the head of state.

According to Dr. Janusz Sibora, Macron's visit is a “win-win” situation in this context, it benefits both sides. – The President of France has huge internal problems and is trying to cover them with international activity – comments an expert in international politics and researcher of the history of diplomacy.

– In Tusk's case, the scale of dissatisfaction and disappointment after a year in power is considerable. The meeting with Macron strengthens his position in terms of image and the Polish presidency of the European Union – says Interia's interlocutor.

Leaders mentioned opposition to the deal European Union – Mercosuralthough Ursula von der Leyen has already announced success in free trade talks with South American countries. – It will be difficult to achieve a majority to block the agreement – says Sibora.

The main supporters of the proposal are Germany. If the agreement is voted on in the option of acceptance by European Parliament i Council of the EUa qualified majority will decide. 15 of the 27 EU countries representing at least 65% must agree. residents of the Union.

– This is a message addressed rather to internal needs. Polish and French politicians can say “we tried, we fought, but they outvoted us because these are the procedures,” Sibora comments.

However, the visit of the French president to Poland also has a much broader context transatlantic relations.

– For me, the purpose of Macron's visit is clear. It is about building a united political front in Europe towards the plans Donald Trump – points out Dr. Sibora.

– I had the impression that the president and the prime minister were speaking generally to Trump, in relation to his plan. Two important things were mentioned in the statements. They emphasized that there would be no peace talks about Ukraine without Ukraine. The second thing is that as a result of these talks, the security of Europe must be maintained, and the talks cannot take place at the expense of Europe's security – explains our interlocutor.

Sibora draws attention to Tusk's words about the “need for full European unity.” – If there is a need for full unity, it means that we do not have it at the moment. If Viktor Orban he talked for an hour with By Putinwe know that this unity does not exist – he emphasizes.

There is also no unity regarding the proposal to send European troops to… Ukrainy. The Prime Minister put an end to speculations and rejected such a scenario. – It was probably a trial balloon – comments Sibora, pointing to the acceptance test for such an idea. – We can't talk about it for now because we don't know whether there will be a truce or peace – he adds.

– Europe is passive. There is no peace plan for Ukraine, it is beyond its capabilities. Of course, one can doubt Trump's peace plans or rhetoric, although he is making many behind-the-scenes efforts to force Russia to come to the table. He will do this economic methods and reducing the price of a barrel of oil. His colleagues said they would talk to Saudi Arabia about this, Sibora notes.

– We, Europe, are once again talking about details. This shows weakness towards Trump. Europe is still recovering from the US elections. You could say that Trump is bragging and his plan to end the war is campaign rhetoric, but we have no idea. We only have what Tusk is talking about, i.e. economic strengthening of Ukraine and shifting Europe to the defense industry. We know all this, it's a broken record – says the expert.

Janusz Sibora points out that the current strategy of main politicians towards Ukraine, compared to Trump's attitude, is “very defensive”.

– This is diplomacy is like an ambulancewhich travels around Europe. Europe cannot afford a peace plan. There were various formats and meetings, but after Trump's election everything changed. Trump said clearly after returning from France that Europe must take on the defense of Ukraine on its own shoulders, our interlocutor emphasizes, referring to the meeting of world leaders on the occasion of the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral.

Sibora also draws attention to the shortening of Macron's visit to Poland, which was first reported by the AFP agency. The President of France was originally supposed to visit the Warsaw Uprising museum.

– This is a bad signal and it always looks bad diplomatically. It shows that the host is underestimated. This is not very elegant – comments the expert.

French media are speculating about an early return to Paris and the announcement of the name of the new prime minister. – The visit to Poland is of a working nature, so the ceremonial elements are reduced. However, shortening the visit is never the best thing. This proves even more so ambulance diplomacy – says Dr. Janusz Sibora in an interview with Interia.

Want to talk to the author? Write to jakub.krzywecki@firma.interia.pl

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