Apartment prices in smaller cities are increasingly equal to or even higher than the largest Polish markets – according to a report by Otodom Analytics. The increases are influenced not only by rising construction costs, but also by the limited availability of land and the dynamic development of smaller centers.
When analyzing the housing market in Poland, the seven largest markets are most often taken into account: Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, Poznań, Katowice, Łódź and Tricity. However, in recent years, there has also been an acceleration in smaller markets that are developing dynamically – informed Otodom experts. Last year 55 percent of all premises delivered by developers were built outside the seven largest agglomerations.
– Lublin, Szczecin, Bydgoszcz, Rzeszów, Kielce and Białystok are approaching the level of investments and prices of the largest urban centers. They attract more and more investors and are characterized by stable growth in the field of housing construction. Therefore, we can confidently call them emerging markets that are worth observing to have a full picture of the situation in the Polish housing sector – said Katarzyna Kuniewicz from Otodom Analytics.
As Otodom experts reported, at the beginning of November, developers in Lublin offered approximately 4,000. apartments and houses, and in Białystok, the smallest city in the ranking, there were just over 1,000 available. premises – which corresponds to the average monthly sales in Warsaw over the last year. The total number of apartments offered by developers in all these markets taken together is similar to the current offer available in the capital.
Smaller cities “catching up with the largest markets”
The number of developer premises in these cities is up to approx. 80% higher than a year ago. in the case of Szczecin and Kielce. At the same time, developers are introducing new investments for sale there. In October, 54 percent was recorded in Rzeszów. increase in the number of introductions yoy. In Lublin it amounted to nearly 30%. y/y, and in Bydgoszcz almost 25 percent. rdr.
Otodom Analytics data shows that in terms of housing prices, smaller cities are catching up with the largest Polish marketsand even exceed those where the average rates are around 11-13 thousand. PLN/sq m – This price level is influenced not only by rising construction costs and limited availability of land for new investments, but also by the dynamic development of these cities, strengthening the demand for apartments – Kuniewicz noted.
In the most expensive emerging market, i.e. Szczecin, the price per square meter developer apartments exceeds 13 thousand zloty. This is more than average prices per square meter. new premises in Łódź (PLN 11.5 thousand/sq m), Katowice (approx. PLN 12 thousand/sq m), and even Poznań (approx. PLN 12.6 thousand/sq m). In Lublin, average apartment prices remain above PLN 11,000. PLN per square meter from the beginning of 2024. As indicated, the cheapest of the cities mentioned is Białystok, where you can buy a premises from a developer for less than PLN 11,000. PLN/sq m
Distributed market in Poland
As the authors of the report pointed out, the housing market in Poland is fragmented. Throughout the country, over 220,000 were put into operation in 2023. apartments and houses. Okay. 138,000, or 62%, were built by developers. Almost every fourth apartment was built in the seven largest markets, and in the adjacent poviats, the so-called obwarzanki 19 percent The agglomerations of Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, Poznań, Katowice, Łódź and Tricity are responsible for 43%. supply of all development premises. The rest were built in smaller cities, towns and villages.
– The domestic housing market includes both large national development companies and smaller local entities implementing projects in specific cities or regions. Differences in their organizational structure and available resources shape the size and nature of their investments, from large estates with comprehensive infrastructure to small projects tailored to the specific local needs and financial possibilities, Kuniewicz noted.
The expert pointed out that, unlike countries such as France, Spain Whether Great Britainwhere housing supply and demand are concentrated around a few dominant cities, and smaller centers and regions do not play such a large role, the Polish market is dispersed and diversified. – This trend will continue, and the position of smaller regional cities will strengthen – concluded the expert.
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