In the seven main markets in Poland, in the period from January to November this year, 26 percent fewer apartments were sold year-on-year – according to data from Otodom Analytics. It was indicated that November was another month in a row in which the current supply was greater than demand. Experts indicate that the largest housing markets in Poland have seen the highest level of apartments offered by developers in four years.
It was reported that as a result, at the beginning of December, the number of apartments offered by developers reached a record level of 56,000. premises.
More apartments on the market
It was indicated that the sharp increase in the offer in November was mainly the result of an increase of almost 2,000 current supply over current sales. Moreover, apartments that had the status of sold apartments in the previous months according to Otodom Analytics statistics are back on the offer.
“However, it should be noted that their scale in November does not differ from the average from the previous months. The cumulative effect of these changes on the largest housing markets in Poland, i.e. in Katowice, Kraków, Łódź, Poznań, Tricity, Warsaw and Wrocław, is the highest level of the number of apartments offered by developers in four years“- it was written.
Despite the increase in the number of apartments offered, the rate of sale of the offer improved again and reached the level of 5.5 quarters at the end of November. For comparison, it is assumed that the result for 4-5 quarters is characterized by the so-called market in equilibrium.
“The source of the improvement in this indicator was not only the relatively good November sales, but primarily the aggregated three-month transaction volume, which exceeded 10,000 apartments sold. A comparable cumulative sales result was recorded in Otodom Analytics in April 2024 – the last month in which the housing market Safe Credit 2% had an impact, i.e. banks granted the last loans,” said Katarzyna Kuniewicz, research director at Otodom Analytics, quoted in the press release.
Post-holiday optimism and growing uncertainty
“The analysis of apartment sales in the largest markets over the last few months shows this both the persistence of post-holiday optimism on the market and the growing uncertainty, which cools down the readiness of clients of development companies to finalize transactions. This is indicated, on the one hand, by adjustments reaching several hundred apartments in the number of premises sold in September and October; the preliminary result indicated 3.7 thousand. sold, the final number is 3.4 thousand, and on the other hand, the sales result in November is lower than expected. It turns out that the intensification of promotional and discount campaigns, which we observed already in the last days of October, has not yet resulted in a significant increase in the number of apartments sold,” she added.
It was reported that in most of the analyzed markets, the average prices of apartments offered in November not only did not increase, but were even slightly adjusted – in terms of monthly changes. In all large markets, November prices of developer apartments compared to the prices from a year ago were higher, but the increases – apart from Łódź and Wrocław – are smaller, only a few percent.
How were the prices?
The average prices of offered apartments increased the least in a year (i.e. in the period from November 2023 to November this year) in Poznań and Tricity (3.5% and 3.5%, respectively), the highest in Łódź and Wrocław (16.3%, respectively). percent and 11.6 percent). No such significant differences were noted when analyzing monthly changes (from November to October this year) – except for the Tricity, where prices increased by 0.8 percent, and in other markets there was a price reduction, but its scale did not exceed -0.6 percent.
“Over the last few months, in the seven largest cities, we have observed a clear stabilization of prices of apartments offered by developers. In the November data, we see a change in the current trend. There is no doubt that in most markets we are dealing with a price correction. However, the answer to the question is whether this is only characteristic of the end of the year?” promotional campaigns this year, or maybe a new trend, we will have to wait until February 2025,” said Katarzyna Kuniewicz.
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