China's demographic crisis: The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's total population decreased in 2024 by 1.39 million people. This is the third year in a row that the number of deaths exceeds the number of births. China finished last year with a population of 1.408 billion. This East Asian superpower is facing a demographic crisis.
Fewer and fewer children: The birth rate in China is generally falling, although last year it was relatively high in recent years. It increased to 6.77 births per 1,000 people in 2024. compared to 6.39 per 1,000 people in 2023. However, if it were not for 2023, this would be the lowest rate since the proclamation of the communist Chinese state in 1949. The total number of births in China was 9.54 million.
Deviation from the norm: Demographers point to two main reasons for last year's increase. Firstly, it is a consequence of the increase in the number of marriages concluded in 2023, when those delayed due to the pandemic took place. Secondly last year was the auspicious Year of the Dragon in China, which usually results in a small population boom. There is little confidence that this growth will continue.
Why don't the Chinese want children? Dr. MichaÅ‚ Bogusz, in his analysis for OSW, pointed out that this is influenced by, among others, cultural factors. “Given high youth unemployment, difficulties in finding suitable employment that meets their aspirations or needs, and high property prices, many young adults delay starting a family” – he writes. “Parents are motivated by the awareness that due to the faulty social security system, the quality of their own life in old age will largely depend on the professional successes of their offspring. Hence the focus on one or, less frequently, two children to provide them with the best education,” he points out.
Consequences of failed policy: Demographers also indicate that “One Child Policy”, which China implemented in 1980-2015 influences the ongoing demographic crisis. In 2016, permission was already given for two children, and from 2021, even three. Parents who had more than one child for the above-mentioned 35 years had to pay an additional fee. Limiting the rapid growth of China's population was so effective that China now has a demographic problem.
China's society is aging: In 2024, approximately 22 percent China's population, i.e. 310.31 million people, was 60 years old or older. The population aged 65 and older was 220.23 million, which represented 15.6 percent. It is estimated that by 2035 the population of people of retirement age will increase to over 400 million. According to the Chinese Academy of Sciences, in this situation, the pension system will exhaust its pension funds by 2035.
Economy at risk: “Friday's data reinforces fears that the world's second-largest economy will struggle as worker and consumer numbers decline. Rising costs of elder care and pension benefits are likely too will create additional burdens for already indebted local governments“- notes Reuters Agency.
Read also Maria Mazurek's conversation with MichaÅ‚ Bogusz, an analyst dealing with China: What's happening in China? “I find the statistics unreliable.”
Sources: : Reuters, OSW, National Bureau of Statistics of China