Chinese goods are replacing Polish from the European Union markets – according to a report published by the National Bank of Poland. China strengthened the position of the most important supplier of investment goods and consumer goods. In turn, Polish exports fall into Germany, which part of this imports replace with purchases in China.
“The 3rd quarter of 2024 was the sixth, when there was a real decrease in exports – the longest such period in the 21st century. In the discussed period, the decrease in export also turned out to be slightly deeper than on average in the European Union countries. Low demand in the countries of the European Union. The European Union, as well as the poor activity of the export sector in countries that are the most important commercial partners of Poland, “NBP said.
“In addition, large influence on the dynamics of Polish exports also had a large one Increased import in many EU economies from third countries, especially from China In such categories as consumer goods of permanent use or part of the means of transport ” – he adds.
The deepest drop in export took place in the category covering means of transport. In the discussed period, the value of their exports decreased by 10.3 percent. RDR, contributing to a reduction in total export dynamics by 2.0 points. percent
“The deteriorating deteriorating influence on deep declines in this category Situation of the automotive industry. Among the products with the deepest declines in the third quarter of 2024, the products of this industry dominated. The export of electrical batteries (33.3 percent yaws), passenger cars (25.5 percent), car tractors (36.5 percent) and buses (37.3 percent) “most strongly decreased” – adds NBP.
NBP reports that he has an adverse effect on the export of batteries slower than expected, the development of electromobility and a large increase in supplies with China to German automotive factories.
Europe puts goods from China
According to Eurostat data (value in euro), the German import of lithium-ion batteries from China increased in the third quarter by 16.3 percent, while Imports from Poland decreased by 21.2 percent. yard. The participation of China in German Import of Battery increased in the third quarter to 38 percent. (with 30 percent in the third quarter of 2023), at the cost of import from Hungarian and Poland.
The decrease in car exports reflects a strong reduction in domestic production. According to data for the third quarter of 2024, the production sold passenger cars decreased to only 25.8 thousand. units (decrease by 64.9 percent), i.e. to a similar level as in the second quarter of 2020.
The scale of declines in automotive export was partly alleviated by the increase in sales of car parts and internal combustion engines – mainly small gasoline engines for hybrid cars.
Sale of car parts up
NBP reports that car parts are currently the most important item in Polish exports. In the third quarter of 2024, the value of their exports increased by 2.2 percent. Why was the increase in car production in Germany.
The upward trend was also continued in the export of other means of transport – air engines, unmanned aerial vehicles and helicopters. In addition, in the third quarter of 2024, the export of rail vehicles was also highly dynamic.
In the third quarter, the scale of declines in the export of supply goods decreased. Its value in the third quarter of 2024 decreased by 2.4 percent. (compared to 5.0 percent in the second quarter). Of the main groups of products classified in this category, a clear growth occurred in the export of organic chemicals. In the analyzed period, the export of plastic semi -finished products also stabilized. The downward trend was continued in the export of iron and steel semi -finished products.
Imports from China are growing
In the report, the NBP announced a strong increase in the import of consumer goods from China.
“The key importance in the total import of imports in the third quarter of 2024 had demand for consumer goods. The value of their imports increased in the discussed period by 10.6 percent of the YDR, while the total import in other categories decreased by 0.8 percent. A real increase in the import of consumer goods turned out to be the strongest than the first quarter of 2022. ” – says the NBP.
According to the NBP, a large increase (almost 20.0 percent of the yard) took place in the import of durable goods. The increase in the import of household appliances (by 29.1 percent of RDR) turned out to be particularly large. Furniture import (20.8 percent) and television receivers (12.7 percent) also increased clearly
The greatest increases in the import of these product groups occurred from China. Household appliances from China increased by 53.0 percent. rdr. As a result of such a large increase in China's participation in household appliances to Poland increased to 48.0 percent in the discussed period.
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