Flood 2024. The peak wave on the Odra – where is it? When will it reach Wrocław

The wave that formed in the southwest of the country is currently in front of Wroclaw.

As reported on Monday evening by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMWM) on social media, the flood wave moves away from the city Kedzierzyn-Kozle after Opole.

“The flood wave is very long and flattened and lower than in 1997. The alarm levels are exceeded on the entire upper Odra River.” – written on the X portal.

Forecasts indicate that the peak of the wave will reach the capital of Lower Silesia in two days.

– This water will reach Wrocław in about 24 hours, while the culmination, i.e. the maximum point when the water will start to rise, will occur in about two days.so on Wednesday, September 18 – informed on Monday morning the meteorologist and hydrologist of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, Jan Szymankiewicz.

According to experts, the water level may reach several meters, but compared to 1997, the wave will be lower by about 1-2 meters. However, this does not change the fact that the alarm level will be exceeded, which means that the river will overflow its banks.

– Even though this wave will be slightly lower than during the millennium flood, we strongly recommend extreme caution and preparing the city to receive this water, because it will still be a situation associated with a high flood threat – emphasized Jan Szymankiewicz.

The expert stressed that in the near future the flood wave will move along the line of cities Olawa – Wroclaw. According to preliminary estimates by meteorologists, the water level in Oława may rise to seven meters.

– Our models indicate that the wave will continue to move downstream towards the end of this week and through the weekend. In fact, the entire Odra River will exceed the alarm levels. – noted Jan Szymankiewicz.

The hydrologist added that according to preliminary estimates on Sunday the beginning of the wave will be marked by increases in Szczecin.

In addition to the main wave, earlier increases may also occur on the Middle Oder, due to left-side tributaries from the Bóbr and Kaczawa areas.

Gradual stabilization occurs in the upper reaches of the Odra Riverand the first falls are being noted on its tributaries. Despite this, warning and alarm levels are still exceeded.

– IN Klodzko the water is already drying up, the losses and the extent of the destruction can be estimated on the streets. But the fact that there are the first drops does not mean that the situation is stable. It means that no more rainwater is coming in – says the IMGW expert.

As Dariusz Witkowski, also a weather forecaster and hydrologist from IMWM, reported on Monday afternoon, a slight increase of up to 20 cm may occur in Koźle in the near future, and similarly in Opole.

– But the hardest part will be from the mouth Nysa Łużycka, because this is where increases above alarm levels will occur. Only before Wrocław, at the Trestno station, we have a high water zone, but forecasts indicate that the water level will increase with each hour. Also tonight and tomorrow morning the alarm level may be exceeded at this point.

– From a hydrological perspective, the situation is still very dangerous and very difficult. The culmination of this flood wave will occur in the next few days – said Jan Szymankiewicz from IMGW.

The positive news is that the forecasts indicate that in the coming days the rain will stop and sunny, warm weather will appear.

– The Genoese low Boris moved away from our country at the end of the weekend, so we haven't recorded any more rainfall since the morning. Only some passing rain, it's not the same amounts anymore, it's not the impact of this low, so the situation will be favorable in terms of rainfall – the expert emphasized. He added that the biggest threat now will be the moving culmination wave.