The poll, which measures daily voting preferences, was conducted by the Ifop center for the daily Le Figaro, LCI television and Sud Radio. It was published on Friday afternoon – the last day of the election campaign before the first round of voting.
Prognosis 36.5 percent of votes for the far right National Union (RN) means that this party, supported by part of the right-wing Republican (LR) group, may win from 225 to 265 seats. RN, i.e. the former National Front Marine Le Penis closer than ever to achieving absolute majority in parliament (289 seats) in the second round of elections on July 7 – estimates “Le Figaro”.
What is important, support for RN is growing – the party gained 2.5 percentage points in the polls. within a week.
A record-high turnout is also forecast, reaching 67 percent, which is 19.5 percentage points higher than in the previous elections.
France. Parliamentary elections. There are the latest polls
However, the support for the left-wing alliance going to the elections as the New People's Front (NFP) has not changed, which in Friday's poll amounted to 29 proc. This result will allow the left to obtain 170-200 seats. Of the parties in this alliance, the far-left France Untamed (LFI) could receive the most seats – 90.
Centrist President Emmanuel Macron's party Regeneration together with its allies it can count on 70-100 seats in parliament. Support for this political force it fell in a week by 0.5 percentage points, to 20,5 proc.
In fourth place is the part of LR that did not support the alliance with Le Pen. From 7 percent votes can get from 30 to 60 seats in the National Assembly.
They bring slightly different results, although still with the dominant position of the far right two other polls published on Friday.
Elections in France. National Rally with an absolute majority?
35 percent for RN, as well as 27.5 percent for the left and 21 percent for Macron's camp – these are the results of the Odoxa center's survey for the weekly “Le Nouvel Obs”. The forecast of the number of seats shows that RN can win from 265 to 305 seats, so has a chance for an absolute majority.
Also a survey for the weekly “Challenges” (made by Toluna/Harris Interactive) allows for an absolute majority for the Supervisory Board with the support of some Republicans. The Supervisory Board itself can count on 220-260 seats, and an additional 20-35 seats can be provided by former Republican leader Eric Ciotti (excluded by the party leadership for supporting the Supervisory Board) and his supporters.
If the maximum forecasts are confirmed, the far right along with Ciotti will exceed the threshold of 289 seats – it will have 290 seats, and in the least favorable scenario it will have 240 seats. This is a solid relative majority allowing the Supervisory Board to propose a prime minister – emphasizes the weekly “Challenges”.
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