Orbán considers the accession of Ukraine to the EU as a huge threat among others For agriculture, but also the labor market, considering that millions of Ukrainian citizens will storm the Hungarian labor market. Meanwhile, most people coming to work in Hungary are … Ukrainians with a Hungarian passport belonging to their historical diaspora.
Fast, simple and for millions
Orbán postulates the organization of voting on the model of a correspondence referendum – so -called national consultations, and thus in a way (here a quote from Orbán): “fast and straight”.
But The de facto Prime Minister is about getting a strong mandate to hit Ukraine. The first effect of his proposals in the internal dimension is to be cut out from the public debate about the loneliness of Hungary in the EU, i.e. that no one has supported the Hungarian approach. During the Friday speech in the Parliament of the Prime Minister Donald Tusk He spoke after the summit in Brussels: – You would not like to be in Orbán's skin yesterday when we talked about Ukraine. (…) Slovak was silent, but finally voted.
This is another situation in which Orbán stands across the EU majority in fundamental security issues.
The organization of the referendum will allow you to build an appropriate narrative regarding Ukraine, EU policy and Euro -Atlantic relations. The Hungarian prime minister fully entrusted with assurances Donald Trumpthat the war will end quickly. As soon as it is not known, but the blame for the prolonged conflict ruling in Hungary fully blames the EU “pristine” politicians. The organization of a referendum campaign will cost millions of euroswhich will go to the ruling oligarchs related to the managers of media titles to the column operators on which the appropriate posters will hang.
Formally to The national referendum was important, more than half of those entitled to vote must go to the urnswho will cast important voices. In order for the referendum to be binding, more than half of the voters should give the same answer to the question formulated in the referendum.
Hungarian fight for referendums
Referendal practice of two referendums ordered during the time of Fidesz-KDNP shows that The turnout does not really matterand the percentage of votes in accordance with the question of the question – and therefore the rulers. In 2016, the Hungarians answered the question: Do you want the European Union to be able to manage mandatory settlement in Hungary other than Hungarian citizens without the consent of the National Assembly?
Before the referendum, the government organized a huge campaign in the mediaas well as in public space (outdoor), calling for going to the electoral urns and vote “on them”. Its value was a total of 8.6 billion gross forints – At the then course it was the equivalent of over PLN 121 million. To this should be added the technical side of the voting organization (preparation of electoral cards, shipment of election packages or organization of polling stations). The total cost of organizing the referendum in 2016 amounted to nearly PLN 192 million.
The defeat of the referendum (the final turnout was 41.46 percent) did not bring any political consequences. What's more, the low attendance threshold also occurred in those areas where centers for illegal migrants were also located. The next day after the referendum, regardless of its invalidity, Prime Minister Orbán announced changes in the parliament in the Basic Law, which would block the relocation mechanism. After all, over 98 percent voters rejected the migration. It was not possible to implement them only in the summer of 2018, as part of the Package Package under the name “Stop Soros”. Such a long expectation was caused by the need to regain the necessary constitutional majority, which Fidesz lost as a result of losing supplementary elections to parliament.
In 2022, the Fidesz-KDNP coalition organized a referendum on the so -called protection of children. To eliminate the problem of low attendance, it was associated with parliamentary elections. The cost of organizing parliamentary elections and one day referendum (April 3, 2022) amounted to approx. 21 billion HUF (i.e. about PLN 260 million). It was to be a cost of several million zlotys lower than in the case of organizing a referendum and elections separately.
On the referendum campaign, which has been ongoing since January 2022, the government was issued by the equivalent of 5 billion forints (PLN 61.5 million). It lasted in parallel with the part about the parliamentary campaign. As in 2016, the referendum was recognized as the voice “or” against “Fidesz. Hence, the opposition called for a invalid referendum voice. In addition to political parties, 15 non -governmental organizations were also involved, which called to vote to vote. After the election, they were fined. The right -wing media indicated that they were almost in the total beneficiaries of grants funded by George Soros.
The turnout in the election amounted to 70.21 percent, and in the referendum 69.44 percent However, it shared the fate of voting from 2016 and turned out to be a failure. All due to the fact that on average over 20 percent the votes were invalid; in Budapest, in some districts this value exceeded up to 30 percent. As in 2016, Fidesz did not discourage the attendance. The prime minister recognized, on average, 90 percent participating in the voting shares his view regarding counteracting non -heteronormativity.
Referendum to fight the opposition
Today, the populism of Orbán's approach is that the procedure for joining the EU requires the ratification of the Treaty of all EU Member States (as well as a candidate country). Ukraine's membership is a distant matterthe prime minister will be able to block one of over 30 stages of negotiations each time.
Apart from the desire to impose your perspective to Hungary and another division into “NAS” and “Was” The prime minister also challenges the greatest competitor – Péter Magyar. This politician, heading Tisza's group, will have to define himself in this important topic. In matters related to Ukraine, the topic of war or membership of Kiev in the EU, he does not take the position of groups that form a faction in which he sits in European Parliament – European People's Party.
Magyar avoids the fire of unambiguous declarations, most likely due to the fact that he does not know what approach they have in this matter Hungarians steeped in anti -EU and anti -Ukrainian narrative for years. However, this should not justify avoiding the position in any way. Commenting on the referendum initiative of Orbán, Péter Magyar wrote in social media that the raised problem is artificial, because “everyone knows that Ukraine is a war overwhelmed and there is no chance of membership in the European Union in the coming decades.”
At the same time, he suggested that it “referendum on the opinion” to extend it to a question about the membership of Hungary itself in the EU in such a way that the prime minister had a bright signal, what citizens expect. According to eurobarometer research Hungarians are one of the most pro -EU societies in the EU.
The prime minister, in turn, tries to draw Magyar a year before the election, showing that voters voting for Tisza are really voting for the “counterfeit” Fidesz.
Why Fidesz for so many national consultations and referendums? The basic answer is “because maybe”. The organization of the plebiscites gives an almost unlimited field (also financial) to build a narrative in line with the assumptions. It also enables supporting the media sympathizing with the authorities. Fidesz keeps its electorate in constant mobilization. At the same time, he has an unlimited opportunity to create an image of the opposition as enemies, presented “leftist sponsored by Soros”, as well as the desire to war – death and destruction.