Already on Monday we'll get it in the morning information closely monitored every month. Central Statistical Office at 10:00 he will give a so-called quick reading inflation for September. Economists and analysts expect this growth indicator up to 4.8 percent year to year with 4.3 percent in August. The prices of services have recently been increasing more strongly than those of goods, and this will probably continue in September.
Inflation will increase even more
For now, we will only get preliminary data. Therefore, apart from the main CPI index, the Central Statistical Office will publish only a few main categories: energy prices (here a strong increase is expected year-on-year, in August it was +10.3%), prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages (+4.1% before month) and fuel prices for private means of transport (in August -1.7% year-on-year and we will probably see the same in September).
On Tuesday we'll find out what it looks like condition of Polish industry seen through the eyes of managers from manufacturing companies. PMI index according to expectations, it is expected to drop to 47.3 points from 47.8 points. We had it a month ago a surprising improvementbut this is still a recessionary reading – any reading below 50 points means a deterioration of the economic situation in this sector of the economy. The slightly “harder” data from the Central Statistical Office also prove that things are not looking good in the industry. Industrial production fell by 1.5% in August. year on year, much stronger than expected. Producers are burdened by the poor condition of foreign partners, which weakens foreign demand, and the relatively strong zloty, which reduces the competitiveness of exporters.
The Monetary Policy Council will decide on interest rates, Adam Glapiński will talk about the reasons
On Wednesday Monetary Policy Council (MPC) will conclude its two-day meeting and announce decision regarding height interest rates. One could say that this is the highlight of this week's calendar, if it were not for the fact that it is basically a foregone conclusion what this decision will be. There is no reason to expect a rate cut, although central banks around Poland, as well as further afield in Europe and the world, are deciding on such a move. The first chances for reductions are next year – for now there is only talk of a discussion on this topic in March.
It is worth noting, however, that despite everything, the MPC's attitude is currently much milder and, for the first time in a long time, we can expect signals about the acceleration of the reductions rather than their postponement. Experts will follow the statement after the Council meeting more closely, looking for any changes in attitude. We do not know the time of publication of the MPC decision.
On Thursday we can now learn a little more about how the Council, or at least its leader, thinks. The monthly meeting will be held that day at 3 p.m press conference chairman of the Monetary Policy Council and also president of the National Central Bank Adam Glapiński. What experts are waiting for, and probably also the currency market, for example, is the so-called forward guidance, i.e. tips on how the Council may act in the near future. During the last conference president of the National Bank of Poland he quite clearly indicated what the Monetary Policy Council is currently monitoring most closely and what would have to happen for interest rates to be lowered.
On Friday at 2:00 p.m. we will get the minutes of the MPC meeting – but not from this week, but from last month. On this day, however, the most important information will be not from Poland, but from the United States. At 2:30 p.m. Polish time we will receive a package of monthly data about situation on the American labor market. What is happening there is closely monitored by the US central bank – Fed (from Federal Reserve). The main indicator will be the change in employment in the non-agricultural sector in September – the number of jobs is expected to increase by 140,000.
As for data from other than Poland countries, there will be a lot of them this week. Including, among others: on Monday on inflation in Germany, on Tuesday a series of PMI data for industry (just like in Poland) and inflation in the euroon Thursday the PMI for the services sector for various European countries (it is not calculated for Poland), and numerous speeches by central bankers throughout the week, including those from the ECB and the Fed.