In May, the Monetary Policy Council will not argue or cut interest rates, the discussion will relate to rather if it is reduced and whether it is the beginning of the cycle or one -time adjustment – comments a member of the Monetary Policy Council Ludwik Kotecki in an interview with the program and Polish Radio. In his opinion, by the end of the year, feet can fall by 100 base points.
– You can not pretend anymore – it seems that in May the council will not discuss or lower interest rates, but it will talk about two things – about the scale of the May reduction and whether it will be a one -time adaptation or the beginning of a cycle of reductions – said Kotecki.
Interest rates. Kotecki: I am a supporter of a cycle of reductions
– If we decide as a advice that it is rather a one -time adaptation, it will probably be a little more, and if it is the beginning of the cycle – it will be smaller steps – he added.
Currently, Kotecki would be a supporter of the cycle interest rate reduction. – For today, it looks like I would carefully start thinking about the cycle. Therefore, I would predict a few discounts, programmed this reduction path and – depending on the data – it implemented in the following months – he said.
According to a member of the MPC, in the entire 2025 it would be possible to reduce by 100 PB. “The script, which I outlined a few months ago, I would rather try to reach these 100 PB by the end of this year,” he said.
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There are more arguments
According to Kotecki, there are currently more and more arguments for cutting interest rates, among others Due to the duties and the expectation of slowdown American economy.
– Now there are even more of these arguments, after this week from the last meeting of the council. What is happening, stagflation scenarios, with an accent on stagnation in USAwhich will translate into other economies, make it no reason to keep your feet at the current level – said a member of the MPC.
– We will feel the indirect effects related to the slowdown of the world economy, the German economy, because we are strongly addicted to it, and they will feel duties. On the side inflation However, I would see a further decrease in inflation, there is no reason for us to feel some inflation shock associated with tariffs, rather the opposite – he added.
Interest rates in Poland
At the April meeting, the Monetary Policy Council maintained the interest rates of the National Bank of Poland at an unchanged level. NBP main interest rate, reference rate, is still 5.75 percent.
The lombard rate was maintained at 6.25 percent. On an annual scale, the deposit rate is still 5.25 percent, the reducover rate of bills of exchange – 5.8 percent, and the discount rate – 5.85 percent. on an annual basis.
The MPC for the last time changed interest rates in October 2023. At that time, it reduced the NBP rates by 25 base points to the current level.
The President of the NBP during a press conference indicated that in the near future there may be the possibility of lowering interest rates. He stipulated, however, that this is not a declaration regarding the start of a cycle of interest rate reductions or a one -off adjustment.
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