– The current situation on the Korean Peninsula resembles a sleepwalker's march. Just like in 1914, when European powers armed themselves, they escalated mutual tension, which ultimately led to a military confrontation – says Karol Starowicz from the Department of Non-European Political Studies at the University of Warsaw. Adam Mickiewicz in Poznań.
The sentence came at the end of our interview. My interlocutor returned to Poland in August with… South Koreawhere he observed the situation on the peninsula for half a year.
The phrase “the march of the sleepwalkers” was a summary of recent events. North Korea may send up to 100,000 soldiers to Ukraine, Bloomberg reported on November 17. He repeated the information Volodymyr Zelensky to the forum European Parliament.
North Korea handed over long-range missile and artillery systems – this is the Financial Times, also on November 17. Finally, the main news: The United States has agreed to use ATACMS missiles in Russia's Kursk Oblast. The New York Times emphasized that Washington wants to prevent Kim Jong Un from sending more troops to help. Russia.
Will Kim Jong Un be scared by ATACMS?
According to Starowicz, the basic question is how he will react Pyongyangif Korean soldiers die as a result of the use of American weapons.
– About 11,000 North Korean soldiers are stationed near Kursk. Initially, they were supposed to handle logistics and be a support base for the Russians. Now it turns out that they can be used in clashes with the Ukrainians. According to the Ukrainian media, they are already under Ukrainian fire – he points out.
He also emphasizes that the deaths of North Korean soldiers were caused by missiles ATACMS may mean an escalation of tension on the Korean Peninsula.
– North Korea he regularly reacts very strongly to any action that he perceives as a direct threat to his safety. The deaths of soldiers could be used by the regime as a pretext to take retaliatory actions, explains Starowicz, adding that Pyongyang's propaganda may present it as an “attack requiring an immediate response.”
However, the scale of the possible response remains unknown.
North Korea and two variants of retaliation
– There could be a greater military provocation on the border with South Korea, or in order to force an international reaction, i.e. to attract attention, the regime could conduct another nuclear test, thus demonstrating its nuclear power – Starowicz believes.
North Korea last conducted a nuclear test in 2017. The prospect of North Korea's denuclearization became even more remote in 2019, after the failure of U.S.-Korean talks in Hanoi. In exchange for the lifting of sanctions Kim Jong Un he allegedly agreed to close the nuclear research center, but he did not want to give up the missiles he had. Donald Trump, then in office, did not accept such a solution.
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Later, the Joe Biden administration failed to reach an agreement with Pyongyang. In the meantime, North Korea has found a new, great partner – Russia.
Pyongyang between the US and Russia
The international balance of power means that North Korea today operates around two dependencies. The first is relations with Moscow. Kim Jong Un wants to gain as much as possible from contacts with Russia. North Korean soldiers have so far only had ideological experience. Now in Ukraine they learn to fight for real.
Whereas Pyongyang – Moscow relations it's not just military matters.
– We are talking about economic aid and Russian technologies desired by North Korea. Therefore, it is necessary to resume diplomatic activities and convince Kim that he has more to lose than to gain from relations with Russia. The key question is how to do this. Cooperation with Russia is a strategic partnership for Pyongyang, my interlocutor emphasizes.
The situation on the Korean Peninsula will escalate. The only question is in what direction. Another nuclear test will draw Americans' attention to the peninsula and distract them from Ukraine
~ Karol Starowicz
The lack of contacts between the North and Seoul does not make matters easier. – A characteristic feature of the current term of office of the president Yoon Suk-yeola there is a lack of dialogue with North Korea. There are no talks – adds Starowicz.
Moreover, in 2022 Kim Jo Jong – Kim Jong Un's sister, who heads Pyongyang's propaganda, stated that her country wants to “live without mutual awareness” in relations with South Korea. South Korea is a natural ally of the US.
Here we come to the second, more difficult relationship. Pyongyang's relations with Washington. More difficult because it is contradictory in practice. Kim Jong Un officially stated that North Korea will never declare giving up nuclear weapons again. However, for the United States, denuclearization is the primary goal of its policy towards Pyongyang.
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Withdrawing this policy would be a diplomatic defeat for Washington, primarily because it is likely to have a domino effect.
– If United States agree to let North Korea freely use its nuclear program, other countries unfriendly to the US, such as Iran, will also demand such a solution on the principle “if you let Korea, why don't you let us” – explains Starowicz.
Pyongyang considers nuclear weapons to be a guarantee of its sovereignty. For North Koreans, the dominant reference is Mu'ammar al-Gaddafi, who also had nuclear ambitions. – He gave up nuclear power and we know how he ended up. Ukraine also had security guarantees for giving up nuclear weapons. We see how it ended – comments Karol Starowicz.
Putin wins, Kim is doing well, the US has a problem
How the United States could convince Pyongyang to withdraw from Ukraine is unclear. People associated with the future administration of the future president have not presented any specific plan yet.
– The greatest advantage and at the same time a disadvantage Donald Trump is its unpredictability. We don't really know what the foreign policy of the United States will be after January 20, 2025, Starowicz points out.
He doesn't know that either Vladimir Putin. – And he can keep Kim with him as an additional bargaining chip. This is a paradox. Putin instrumentally uses North Korea for his games, and North Korea instrumentally uses the rapprochement with Russia by receiving economic aid and technologies – says Interia's interlocutor.
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Especially since Putin can give North Korea what Kim Jong Un needs most. Karol Starowicz emphasizes that “Putin has stronger cards”. The United States wants to disarm Korea. Putin puts military technologies on the table. International sanctions are still in force and block North Korea's development. Putin is offering economic aid that may help realize its potential.
According to unofficial sources, the birth rate is higher in North Korea than in South Korea. This year it's 0.6 in the South. It's a demographic disaster. Meanwhile, the North maintains demographic growth at 1.8
~ Karol Starowicz
– North Korea's economic situation is better than in the 1990s, but worse than in South Korea. There is a lack of foreign investments, modern solutions in agriculture and, above all, experts in the use of raw materials. North Korea has the entire Mendeleev table, but there are no specialists who would be able to properly manage it natural resources. I think that the Russians will help North Korea a lot in this direction, says Starowicz.
Therefore, for the Trump administration, Pyongyang will be a challenge not only within the traditional goals of American foreign policy, but also in the context of ending the war in Ukraine, which the future US president committed to during the campaign.
Unexpectedly, Poland may help him in his diplomatic efforts.
Poland as “Washington's window”
November 15 Polish Foreign Office issued a message about a “reconnaissance mission” in Pyongyang, the aim of which is to restore Poland's permanent diplomatic presence in North Korea.
Apart from Poland, the only Western country present in the DPRK is Sweden. – I think this is an opportunity for our diplomacy to internationally mark its presence in this region of the world. It's worth pointing out one thing here. Since the signing of the armistice in Panmunjom, Poland has been still active in the Supervisory Commission of Neutral Countries, Starowicz points out.
The 1953 armistice ended the fighting on the peninsula, and the commission is responsible for monitoring compliance with it.
– We are constantly present on the peninsula as part of the commission. Our diplomatic mission in Pyongyang could be a link or even a peacemaker between North Korea and the United States. In this context, our facility would also be Washington's “window” on what is happening in Pyongyang in political relations and political dialogue, which is necessary at the moment – Karol Starowicz tells Interia.
Want to talk to the author? Write to jakub.krzywecki@firma.interia.pl
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