Putin “will test the West's red lines”

On Wednesday, during an event organized by the German Council on Foreign Relations, the head of the German Federal Intelligence Service (BND), Bruno Kahl, said that Moscow was continuing to intensify hybrid warfare.

– Widely used hybrid measures increase the risk that NATO will ultimately consider invoking the mutual defense clause contained in Article 5, he said. He emphasized that “at the same time, the growing growth of Russia's military potential means that direct military confrontation with NATO is becoming one of the possible options for the Kremlin.”

Under Article 5, if a NATO member is attacked, other members of the alliance are obliged to respond.

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NATO and Western intelligence services warn that Russia is behind a growing number of hostile activities in the Euro-Atlantic area, ranging from repeated cyberattacks to Moscow-linked arson attacks – all of which Russia denies.

Kahl said the Russian army would likely be capable of attacking NATO before the end of the decade, adding that Moscow's war with Ukraine means that Russia has battle-tested troops under its command, which increased the threat from its conventional forces, and at the same time has mastered modern ways of fighting using drones.

Kahl cited BND assessments that senior Russian government officials now have doubts about “whether the obligation to provide assistance under Article 5 would persist in an emergency situation.” The head of the BND said that there is currently no indication of Russia's specific war intentions. – But if such views gain ascendancy in the Russian government center, the risk of armed conflict in the coming years will increase, he said.

Kahl mentioned possible scenarios, among others: limited intervention with the participation of “little green men” in the Baltic countries under the pretext of protecting the Russian minority. Russia is concerned about the failure of NATO as a defense alliance, Kahl believes. From Russia's perspective, this goal would be achieved if Article 5 remained ineffective in the event of an attack.

Kahl also stated that Russia would try to divide NATO before a possible war broke out. This could happen, for example, by Russia bringing individual member states of the Alliance to its side. Vladimir Putin “will test the West's red lines and lead to further escalation,” says the head of the BND.