There are multiplying signals of the deterioration of the economic situation in Russia, which is admitted by the heads of Russian companies, even those particularly close to the Kremlin, writes “Le Monde” on Thursday.
Economy Russia begins to sink, inflation exceeds 9 percent, the central bank raised the main rate to 21 percent, and the interest rate on bank loans reaches almost 30 percent. The ruble exchange rate dropped to the level of the first months of the war, reports the Parisian daily. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that Russia's economic growth will decline to 1.3% in 2025. GDP.
– The central bank rate is 2.5 times higher than inflation, and it is not falling. It seems that the cure is more harmful than the disease, said the head of the Severstal mining and metallurgical enterprise, Alexei Mordashov.
– The situation is difficult. The economy won't last long. We see clear signs of slowdown, said the head of Sberbank, German Graf.
Business is sending signals to the Kremlin
Sergei Chemezov, head of the Rostiech holding, a company that is – as “Le Monde” writes – “the heart of the industrial and defense complex”, believes that “an increase in interest rates is a serious brake on growth in the industrial sector.”
– If we continue (this policy), practically most of our enterprises will go bankrupt – he adds.
A representative of Russian business, who wished to remain anonymous, tells Le Monde that “the environment is sending signals to the Kremlin: the economy is still holding up, but it won't last long. We need to end the conflict in Ukraine as soon as possible.”
Putin “sticks to his fundamental assumptions”
President-elect USA Donald Trump he allowed media reports to appear that he would quickly go to Moscow to sign an agreement that would de facto force Kiev to make territorial concessions, but would freeze the conflict. The Kremlin did not respond with any signal indicating that it was interested in a truce – reminds “Le Monde”.
A European diplomat tells a daily in Moscow that for now Vladimir Putin “sticks to its fundamental assumptions” and makes it clear that peace will be concluded only on its terms.
– In the coming weeks, (Putin) will watch Trump and see what will be left of American aid Ukraine in the military sphere. But on its own economic territory in Russia, it is subjected to testing, sanctions and their dangerous consequences, which are increasingly worrying – adds the diplomat.
The president of the World Policy Conference, Thierry de Montbrial, predicts that the Russian leader will monitor Trump for several months. It would be in the Kremlin's interest to avoid mobilization and a collapse of the economy, but “Putin is in no hurry.”
Prigozhin's rebellion
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, a formation of mercenaries, died on August 23 in a plane crash, but it is believed that this crash was Putin's revenge for the June rebellion of Prigozhin and the Wagner Group.
On June 24, the Wagnerians captured the headquarters of the Russian troops in Rostov-on-Don and then began to advance towards Moscow. Prigozhin demanded the “restoration of justice” in the army and the removal of the defense minister from power Sergei Shoigu.
On the same day in the evening, however, he announced his retreat and the withdrawal of mercenaries to field camps to “avoid bloodshed.”
Main photo source: PAP/EPA/SERGEI ILNITSKY