A jackal has appeared, ticks do not disappear. What does one and a half steps up do for us?
A climate catastrophe is happening before our eyes, say scientists. Is it? It is true that we have warmer winters and hotter summers, but should we call it a “disaster”? After all, we go on living, nothing special is happening. Meanwhile, the past year confirms to scientists that we are approaching the brink of a climate abyss. What exceptionally bad thing happened in nature in 2024? We asked a physicist, an oceanologist and a hydrobiologist about it.
- One and a half degrees – this is how much the temperature on our planet has risen since the beginning of the century. This year's measurements leave no doubt. We can expect tornadoes, floods and drought.
- Four and a half millimeters a year is how much the level of seas and oceans on Earth is rising. A report was published this year indicating that many coastal cities could be underwater by 2100.
- Jackal and parrot seen again this year in Poland – new species arrive from the south. These are the effects of climate warming, which may pose a threat to native wildlife.
- A rash of disease-carrying ticks – another sign of disturbing changes. It poses a direct threat to human health.
- Scientists argue that further climate change can still be stopped.
Since April 2020, an advisory team on the climate crisis has been operating under the President of the Polish Academy of Sciences (transformed into a Committee in 2023). Its chairman was Professor Szymon Malinowski, member of the Polish Academy of Sciences and atmospheric physicist.
– You can see how climate change they are progressing, it is exactly like in the timetable, it is just moving forward – says the scientist. – The flood in Lower Silesia was “intensified” by global warming. Moreover, this summer there were a lot of heavy rains and storms in the cities. At the same time, the drought is progressing. These are such visible signs that we have changed the world.
Record heatwaves, super typhoons, wildfires, droughts and extreme floods. Climate summary of 2024Magda Łucyan/Fakty TVN
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– But there have always been floods and this is not the first flood in Lower Silesia, and there have always been heavy rains… So please explain to me why these are different than those that occurred 30, 50 or 100 years ago – please, professor.
– What did you have in physics school?
– Barely three – I answer truthfully.
– Do you understand what the water-water vapor phase balance curve in the atmosphere is?
– That's different… And do you think that the temperatures have increased? Are the measurements trustworthy, or are those who take the measurements lying?
– The measurements are trustworthy – I answer, and I feel like I'm standing at the blackboard.
– If they are trustworthy, it means that our temperatures are higher, as it is written in the IMWM reports.
– Now – if the temperature increases, the evaporation of water from the seas and oceans also increases.
– Yes, it's logical, you don't have to have a C in physics to figure it out.
– So when there is greater evaporation, more water may fall with rain – explains Professor Szymon Malinowski. – And the more water vapor in the air, the stronger the storms and storms, because the conversion of steam into water is a steam engine that powers the storm. And let us add that when water falls in large portions, it drains faster, does not spill and does not soak in slowly. Moreover, where it is spilled, more water evaporates from the warmer ground surface and from the plants, and less water feeds the soil. Was there any snowmelt in spring? Was there snow in winter?
– There was no snow, no thaw, no water seeped in. There is less water underground, I answer.
– Yes Sir. That's why we have drought. Water does not soak into the ground, it evaporates or runs off.
– So on the one hand, there are storms, local cloudbursts, flash floods, and on the other hand, drought – I sum up.
– Well, yes. And this is the timetable I mentioned at the beginning. Everything is happening according to the timetable – reminds the professor.
Drought in Małopolska. Lake Klimkówka is drying upTVN24
We are already in decline
– Did anything particularly surprise you in the past year?
– Yes. A sharp increase in the planet's energy imbalance.
– Could you explain this to me?
– The Earth – a planet – absorbs more energy from the Sun than it emits into space. This imbalance, the increase in the energy content of the climate system due to the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, is what we observe as global warming. It has been progressing over the years, including this year. There is an increase in emissions and an intensification of the greenhouse effect, resulting in less and less cooling of the planet. But what is surprising this year is the rapid decline in the so-called albedo.
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