Ukraine's Kursk Offensive: Washington Post: Russian Analyst Says Recapture of Oblast Could Take Year

Ukrainian forces entered Russia's Kursk region on August 6 and have been fighting there ever since. The American daily said the Ukrainian operation poses the biggest challenge to Vladimir Putin since the mutiny of the Wagner Group mercenaries and their “march on Moscow” in June 2023.

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The Washington Post quoted Russian analysts who estimated that the Ukrainian military had occupied an area of ​​about 250 square kilometers in the Kursk region. This means that this is the largest counterattack on Russian territory since Putin's invasion of Ukrainestarted in February 2022. So far, quick raids on the Russian regions bordering Ukraine have been carried out by Russian volunteer legions fighting on the side of Kiev.

According to pro-Kremlin political analyst Sergei Markov, a former adviser to the Russian leader, “the audacious seizure of territory by Ukrainian troops is unlikely to encourage Putin to compromise.” He admitted that the attack on Kursk Oblast, which borders Ukraine's Sumy Oblast, caught Russia's weak defenses by surprise, apparently unaware of the coming offensive.

According to the analyst, there is a possibility that the Ukrainian government intends to use the occupied territory as a bargaining chip in future talks with the Kremlin. Markov predicts that currently “Russian troops are racing against time to launch a counterattack before the Ukrainian brigades take up positions.” “The advantage belongs to the defenders,” he emphasized. “I think the plan (of the Ukrainians) is to occupy as much territory as possible. While Russia is gathering its reserves, they will build fortifications,” he added.

In his opinion, if the offensive of Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region in Russia continues at a similar pace as the Russian forces are attacking in Ukraine, it may take the Kremlin about a year to regain control of the region.

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As we read in the Washington Post, although Russia has a more powerful air force than Ukraine, recent Russian military operations in the Kharkiv and Donetsk regions have shown that it is extremely difficult for invaders to occupy areas where Ukrainians have previously built fortifications.