US Presidential Election 2024: Serious Pitfalls Await Kamala Harris

Immigration Policy Is Kamala Harris's Biggest Challenge for Campaigners. Both in his campaign and during the recent debates with Donald Trump The Democratic candidate avoided answering the question of what her solution to the migration crisis on the Mexican border was as much as she could.

Looking at the activity and public statements, it can be assumed that Harris either doesn't have the answer or doesn't want to share it with voters.. He repeats like a mantra that the migration problem would have been resolved if Republicans, at Trump's behest, had not torpedoed a bipartisan agreement in Congress on the security of the border with Mexico.

Yes, it is true that Trump wanted to blow up this bill at all costs – and he eventually got his way – because he knew that the migration crisis would be invaluable to him in the campaign. But that does not change the fact that Harris offers no plan for what comes next. Asserting that if she wins the election, she will return to the bill and get it voted on in Congress is wishful thinking..

If you lose the race for the White House Republicans, even apart from Trump, have no interest in helping Democrats solve one of the most serious problems facing the United States today and thus cut off the supply of valuable political fuel.

But Harris' problems with illegal migration do not end there. The Democratic candidate cannot distance herself in this matter from the actions of the Joe Biden administration, of which she was and is a key element.. Since 2021, she has been responsible for identifying the causes of migration to the United States from the so-called Northern Triangle, i.e. Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. Republicans have tried to “stick” responsibility for the security of all borders to her, while at the same time blaming the failure of this mission, for example by inventing her nickname “Tsarina of the Borders.”

The second threat to Harris is her past views on migration.In the previous presidential campaign, in 2020, she proposed decriminalizing illegal border crossings, limiting migrant detentions, and also announced fundamental changes to the functioning of the U.S. Customs and Border Protection Service (including cutting funding).

The most important thing for Americans, and something that significantly determines the outcome of every election, is the wallet.. That is, the economy. It is no different in the case of the United States. However, it is not even about the objective state of the country's finances, but about the subjective feeling of one's own financial situation, the cost of living, and the purchasing power of salaries.

This is where Kamala Harris' problem begins. Although inflation is currently at just 2.9%, most Americans feel that they are increasingly unable to make ends meet, and that saving has become a privilege for the wealthy.. This is the result of the inflationary shock that hit the country during and after the coronavirus pandemic. Although the price increase has been brought under control, its effects are still felt by Americans – prices are on average more than 20 percent higher than at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.

A study conducted in mid-May on behalf of Primerica, one of the leading financial services companies, showed that as many as two-thirds of middle-income households feel they cannot keep up with the cost of living. In turn, a report published in July by the lending platform LendingTree shows that more than one third of households in the United States have some or very great difficulty paying their current expenses (interviewers asked about the past week).

There are dozens of similar studies, but one conclusion can be drawn from them: Americans feel that things are going badly for the country's economy, and especially for their personal finances.. Obviously, this does not work to the advantage of the current administration, which has been responsible for the economy for over 3.5 years.

Thus, it does not work in Harris' favor, and Donald Trump is trying to take advantage of this fact, assuring that his return to the White House will mean a time of prosperity for the country and its citizens. (the problem is that the Republican candidate does not present any economic plan, but only throws out individual slogans or assurances, as if everyone was supposed to take his word for it).

Harris knows that winning the economic and financial debate for ordinary Americans could be her ticket to the White House. That's why she's bidding very high. And very broadly. It focuses primarily on improving the situation of the middle class and low-income Americans.. She promised, among other things, a $6,000 tax credit for children, construction of 3 million new apartments/houses for sale and cheap rent by the end of her first term, lower prescription drug prices, and a statutory ban on price gouging by grocery chains.

The challenge for Kamala Harris' campaign will be not only to convince Americans to dare to send a woman to the White House for the first time in the history of the United States, but also, to do so at a time when the geopolitical situation in the world is the most tense since the Cold War.

The challenges Harris faces on the international stage are endless. Just name one the war in Ukraine, the neo-imperial ambitions of Russia, the war in the Middle East, the economic and political colonization of Africa by China and Russia, and finally, the most important thing for America from a strategic point of view: the looming conflict (not only economic, but also military) with China.

During a recent televised debate with Donald Trump, Harris briefly outlined her vision for the United States' role in the global arena. She admitted, America must occupy the place that “has always belonged to it”, that is, “defender of international norms and values”She also stressed the importance of the United States defending its friends and allies, as well as the enormous importance of NATO in the current era.

Trump Harris, on the other hand, is trying to score points as a politician who not only is he a threat to America's international standing, but he is also a weak leader who is disliked by other leaders and is a laughing stock on the international stage. And it is known that the number one politician of the nuclear superpower cannot be the subject of mockery and ridicule. The question is whether Harris will convince Americans that she would perform the role of global sheriff better and more effectively than Trump.

The issue of climate may turn out to be a surprisingly important element in the finale of the presidential campaign in the United States. All because of one word: fracking. It is a method of extracting natural gas from shale. A very important thing for heavy industry and the fuel industry.. Donald Trump has repeatedly cited Kamala Harris's position from 2019, when she wanted to ban fracking. Now – including in an interview with CNN – Harris no longer talks about the ban.

Harris' change of stance is hardly surprising. After all, the winner of the November elections will be decided, among other things, by the so-called Rust Belti.e. four states in the northeastern part of the country (Michigan, Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania), where heavy industry is very well developed and constitutes the foundation of the economy.

Michigan and Pennsylvania in particular are key here, as they are swing states in this election. That's also a lot of electoral votes at stake – Michigan 16, and Pennsylvania 20. Currently, Harris is leading in both states – in Michigan her average result is 47.6 percent (against Trump's 46.1), and in Pennsylvania 47.4 (against Trump's 46.9). The point is that in both cases her advantage over the Republican candidate has been decreasing in the last dozen or so days.

Harris faces a difficult task. On the one hand, it cannot abandon its idea of ​​a “clean energy economy” and plans to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 40 percent by 2030.because her left-liberal electoral base, for which the fight against the climate crisis is one of the key demands, would not forgive it. On the other hand, he can't bet everything on a green card because then he'll lose badly in key swing states. In turn, balancing between the two will make it difficult for her to gain credibility, which Trump will certainly want to exploit.

Kamala Harris faces a similar risk to the climate issue. The Democratic candidate is a staunch supporter of liberalizing abortion rights; Donald Trump is a staunch opponent. One of the sharpest exchanges during their television debate on ABC News concerned abortion. The Republican candidate threatened that Harris wants to legalize abortion at 9 months of pregnancy and “execution of newborns”, for which he was admonished by the hosts not to provide false information (in no American state is it legal to have an abortion at 9 months of pregnancy).

According to a survey conducted by Gallup, the oldest public opinion research institute in the United States, in May this year, Americans generally support the availability of abortion. 35 percent of society believes that termination of pregnancy should be possible regardless of the circumstances, 50 percent allow abortion in certain situationsand only 12 percent would like to see an absolute ban on abortion.

Again, the numbers clearly support Harris' position on this issue, but the key is not what the entire American society thinks, but what people in swing states think. Harris cannot alienate them with the image of an abortion radical that Trump is trying so hard to pin on her. At the same time, she cannot start to duck on this issue, and especially not deny the right to abortion, because her own political camp would devour her in a split second.

What solution did the democrats find out of this situation? This exit is called Tim Walz and he is the candidate for vice president from the Democratic Party. – He is supposed to show that the social program of the Democrats is not radicalism, but a common sense proposal for reform – assured Dr. Łukasz Pawłowski, sociologist and expert on American politics, in an interview with Interia at the end of August. – For example, on the issue of abortion, Walz constantly repeats that in our rural America we do not poke our noses into other people's lives and even if we disagree with them, it is not up to us to decide for them – explained the author of the book “The Divided States of America” ​​and co-author of “Podkast Amerykanski”.