USA, Presidential Election 2024. Poll. Harris hot on Trump's heels in his state

According to the data published on Monday polls According to the Independent Center, Kamala Harris has a 4 percentage point advantage over Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, 6 in Michigan and 9 in Wisconsin.

The Democratic candidate's victory in these three key rust belt states (states in the northeastern part of the USA) would probably mean victory in the presidential election in November, assuming that the traditional strongholds of the left are maintained.

>> Kamala Harris Could Have Issues in Important State. 'Nowhere Is This Issue More Important' <<

Her ratings were slightly better than a similar poll in the same states conducted by Siena College for The New York Times last week, which showed Harris leading Trump by three points in Pennsylvania and six points in Michigan and Wisconsin.

In almost all similar studies, before withdrawal Joe Biden from the race, the current president lost to Trump in all the “swinging” states, or so-called swing states – Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia. Swing states owe their common name to the fact that sometimes the Republican candidate wins the election there, and sometimes the Democratic candidate. Gaining an advantage among the voters there is of fundamental importance for the outcome of the presidential election.

SEE ALSO: Kamala Harris leads in three key states

A favorable trend for Harris is also suggested by a Suffolk University survey commissioned by USA Today in Florida, published Tuesday. According to the poll, Harris is losing to Trump there, but her loss is 5 percentage points, less than expected. Although Florida – the former president's home – was once one of the most important electoral battlegrounds, Republicans have gained a significant advantage there in recent years, and in 2022, the state's Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, won re-election by 16 percentage points.

According to the New York Times average of national polls, Harris is 1 percentage point ahead of Trump nationally (48-47 percent), similar to the RealClearPolitics average. The Economist average gives Harris a lead of almost 3 percentage points (47.8-45 percent).

Polls only signal certain changes in voter attitudes, but they cannot indicate a certain election result, because the candidate who gains greater public support does not always win the election.

Elections presidential elections in the US are indirect, not direct. This means that in each state, voters formally vote for electors of the Democratic Party, the Republican Party or another candidate. In each state, the party wins a different number of electoral votes, and these are added up nationwide (50 states and the District Colombia) to 538. The majority required to win the race for the White House is 270 Electoral College votes.

The outcome of the presidential election is most often decided by votes in a dozen or so so-called swing states, where Democrats and Republicans usually spend the most time during the campaign.