War in Ukraine. Will Russia and NATO “share” the country? New idea

Due to realignment by Ukraine its war aims, the application is increasingly being discussed West German modeli.e. admission to NATO this part of the territory over which Kiev exercises effective and real control – writes the British daily “Financial Times” on Saturday.

According to the FT, Western diplomats, but also increasingly Ukrainian officials, are coming to the conclusion that significant security guarantees could form the basis of a negotiated agreement in which Russia will retain de facto, but not de jure, control over all or part of the currently occupied territories of Ukraine.

The newspaper notes that neither Kyivnor its supporters, propose recognizing Russia's sovereignty over one-fifth of Ukraine's territory, as this would encourage The Kremlin to further aggression and would seriously undermine the international legal order. It is expected a tacit acceptance that these lands should be recovered through diplomatic means in the future. This is still a sensitive issue for Ukrainians, at least publicly, but according to the quoted Western diplomat, giving up territories in order to gain NATO membership may be their only choice.

There is more open discussion about the nature and duration of the security guarantees Ukraine will need to support the agreement. IN Washington president of Ukrainy Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated its position in favor of accelerated NATO membership. But as “FT” notes, the problem is that the US is against going beyond the agreed alliance position that “Ukraine's future is in NATO”, its accession is on an “irreversible path” and it will be invited to join “when allies agree and conditions will be met.”

The US fears that offering defense guarantees before the end of the war under Article 5 Washington Treaty will draw the US and NATO into conflict.

But some of Ukraine's allies say that doesn't have to happen. “FT” recalls, among others: opinions Jens Stoltenbergwho ended his term as NATO Secretary General this week. In an interview given to this newspaper, he pointed out that American security guarantees for… Japan do not include the Kuril Islandsfour of which, occupied by the Soviet Union in 1945, are claimed by Japan. He also cited an example Germanwhich were admitted to NATO in 1955, although they were dividedand the alliance's security guarantees covered only their western part.

“When there is a will, there are ways to find a solution. But we need a line that defines where Article 5 applies, and Ukraine must control all territory up to that border,” Stoltenberg said.

“FT” notes that the West German model for Ukraine has been discussed in foreign policy circles for over 18 months and recalls that arguments in its favor were presented by, among others, Dan Friedformer U.S. Deputy Secretary of State for Europe; Kurt Volkerformer U.S. ambassador to NATO and special envoy Donald Trump to Ukraine; Stoltenberg's predecessor Anders Fogh Rasmussen or political scientist Iwan Krastewand most recently president Czech Petr Pavel.

The newspaper also quotes the opinion of an American historian of the Cold War Mary Sarottewho argues in Foreign Affairs that the conditions of NATO membership can be adapted to individual circumstances. As she wrote, Ukraine should define the border that it can defend militarily and agree to permanent non-deployment of troops or nuclear weapons on its territoryunless threatened with attack, and renounce the use of force beyond that limit except in self-defense. NATO membership on these terms would be presented Moscow as a fait accompli.

As he argues, the West German model “would be much better for Ukraine and the alliance than further postponing membership until until Putin gives up his ambitions in Ukraine or until Russia achieves a military breakthrough. “This path would bring Ukraine closer to lasting security, freedom and prosperity in the face of Russian isolation – in other words, to victory.”

Reports of increasing pressure on the Ukrainian authorities from some Western officials have been appearing for months. Giving away some of the occupied territories “in exchange for peace” was proposed by Donald Trump.

During a speech at a campaign rally in Mint Hill in North Carolinathe Republican presidential candidate stated that even the most unfavorable agreement for Ukraine with Vladimir Putin would be a better solution than letting the entire country go up in flames.

– They would give up a littleand everyone would be alive, every building would still be standing, and every tower would age for another two thousand years – he said.

However, the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs does not support the idea of ​​any agreements on giving back its territories to the invaders. – There can be no compromises regarding the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine – said the minister's spokesman Andrija Sybihy. He also emphasized that the only real path to “comprehensive, just and lasting peace” is the so-called peace formula proposed by President Zelensky.

This will be announced officially during the meeting Ramstein Group October 12. Earlier, the Ukrainian leader presented his concept to the American president Joe Bidenowi. It was then that a decision was to be made to discuss it together with representatives of the allied countries in Germany.

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