Hubert Kijek spoke with Allan Lichtman, a distinguished American political scientist and historian who has been accurately predicting who will win the presidential elections in the United States since 1984. He does this based on the “thirteen keys” method he developed. The expert believes that the Democrats have a good chance of winning, but he will probably give his final forecast of the presidential election result in August, after the Democratic convention.
Allan Lichtman of the American University in Washington is an American historian who created a forecasting method called “thirteen keys to the White House”. Based on these parameters, he accurately predicted the results of American presidential elections from the 1980s to the most recent one, in 2020.
As Allan Lichtman explained, the Keys to the White House describe how American presidential elections really work. They measure the strength and effectiveness of the ruling party. They have been working since he predicted Ronald Reagan's reelection in April 1982.
Allan Lichtman believed that Joe Biden should remain in the race because he would gain two of the keys: being the incumbent president and having the party's support. After Joe Biden dropped out of the race, then by the logic of the keys he should also resign from office, allowing Kamala Harris to become president. Despite this, Lichtman believes that the Democratic Party has a good chance of winning.
– I've been saying for months that something bad would have to happen for the Democrats to lose, and I stand by that prediction, but I will probably release my final prediction after the Democratic convention in August, said Allan Lichtman.
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“Keys are like the North Star. They don't change”Allan Lichtman on predicting US election results.Facts about the World TVN24 BiS
“Every election has its own dynamics. Every four years I hear that I have to change the keys for a variety of reasons. We had the first African-American running for president. I heard, 'Change the keys because this has never happened before. The nation is not ready for this.' We had a female candidate, the growing role of social media and the Access Hollywood tape that was definitely going to bury Trump's campaign. But the keys are like the north star. They don't change. I want to emphasize that they are based on history. They are very solid,” Allan Lichtman said.
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