Fuel prices at gas stations. This has not happened since October

“In the second week of September, we expect fuel prices to drop by an average of 5 to 10 groszy per litre, and symbolic corrections to autogas prices, which may not affect the average level of autogas prices at stations,” Refleks analysts reported on Friday. “At the same time, there will be more stations where the prices of 95 petrol and diesel will approach or fall below PLN 6/l,” they added.

Analysts indicated that this was the result of lower prices of oil and finished fuels on the ARA market. “In the past week, petrol and oil prices dropped by an average of 5 groszy per liter, while autogas prices dropped by 1 grosz per liter,” they noted, adding that the average fuel prices at the stations on 6 September they were respectively: unleaded petrol 95 PLN 6.21/l, unleaded petrol 98 PLN 7.00/l, diesel PLN 6.21/l and autogas PLN 2.83/l.

“As a result, not only are petrol and diesel prices the lowest since the beginning of the year, but they have also fallen to their lowest level since October last year,” analysts said.

In their opinion, the scale of the correction on the wholesale market, especially in the case of gasoline, “leaves room for further price declines at the pumps next week, regardless of the current situation on the wholesale market.”

In turn, the analysis of e-petrol.pl presented on Friday indicates that the prices of the popular “95” may most often be in the range of PLN 5.98-6.15/l. Diesel oil will also become cheaper. “Depending on the region and type of station, drivers will most often pay PLN 6.12-6.24/l for this fuel. Due to the reduction in the prices of basic fuels, autogas may also become cheaper, on average a liter of this fuel will cost PLN 2.75-2.82,” the analysts informed.

They reminded us that this week, retail sales once again saw reductions, which were “significant” and covered all types of fuel offered at petrol stations. The e-petrol.pl listing from 2 September showed that the average retail price of popular 95 petrol, after a drop of 8 groszy, in Poland amounted to PLN 6.19/l, while diesel cost PLN 6.21/l. The “relatively smallest expense” for refuelling concerned drivers of cars with gas installations, who paid PLN 2.79 for a litre of LPG.

“Fuels cost the same in retail as they did in October last year, and at an increasing number of petrol stations this week petrol, and sometimes diesel too, were sold for less than PLN 6/l,” analysts said.

They noted that the beginning of September brought a “clear” correction of fuel prices in Polish refineries, and over the course of several days, domestic refineries belonging to Orlen and Saudi Aramco Poland announced new prices “almost every day”.

“Over the past week, the most popular type of unleaded petrol 95 has fallen in price by an average of over PLN 200 net per 1,000 litres,” analysts calculated. They added that the current average wholesale price of this fuel is PLN 4,433.80. The price of diesel oil has also fallen, but less, by PLN 84.60 to PLN 4,642.80.

“However, the reductions in fuel prices at refineries are beginning to slow down. In the coming days, the changes will be smaller and smaller, and in the perspective of next week even a small upward correction is possible,” analysts predict.

As Refleks experts pointed out, the price declines of the November series of Brent crude oil contracts “slowed down in the area of ​​USD 72 per barrel”. “Brent crude oil is the cheapest since December 2023. Russian Urals FOB Rotterdam crude oil has fallen to USD 65 per barrel. Gasoline prices on the European ARA market have fallen to USD 700/tonne and are the lowest since December 2021. Diesel on the ARA market currently costs around USD 670/tonne and is the cheapest since May 2023,” they added.

Analysts pointed out that there are growing concerns on the market about a decline in the pace of growth of global demand for oil in the coming quarters. In their opinion, the change in OPEC+ decision proved to be a support for prices. They recalled that eight OPEC+ countries (Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Kuwait, Algeria, IraqOman, Kazakhstan) participating in voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day decided on Thursday, September 5, to slowly increase the supply of crude oil. “But only from December, and not as previously agreed (during the June meeting) from October,” the analysts noted.

They added that according to the latest OPEC+ decision, production is to increase by 189 thousand barrels per day in December and 207 thousand barrels per day in January. In July, OPEC+ produced 41.7 million barrels per day. “The schedule for increasing the supply of crude oil by OPEC+ may change further, depending on market fundamentals and the level of crude oil prices,” analysts at Refleks said.

Experts from e-petrol.pl noticed that the first week of September on the oil market brought a clear drop in the prices of the raw material. “Oil prices on the London Stock Exchange were at their lowest level since the beginning of the year, falling to USD 72.35 per barrel on Wednesday. The last time a barrel of Brent oil was cheaper was in the first half of December last year,” the analysts added. They also reported that on Friday morning the price of the raw material in London remained low, fluctuating around USD 73.

In their opinion, the impulse for the price reduction in recent days was information about the possible unblocking of Libyan production and exports. “The political agreement on the election of new authorities of the central bank, which has a decisive influence on the distribution of domestic oil revenues, worked out with the help of the UN mission, gives hope for the restoration of daily production of around 700 thousand barrels,” the portal's analysts believe. In their opinion, in the face of “the visible weakness of demand for fuels in the world”, including in Chinathe improvement in the supply situation quickly translated into a decline in prices on the oil market.

Analysts also indicated that the markdown observed at the beginning of the month has already seen a reaction from OPEC+. “The producer group, which was to begin a gradual withdrawal from restrictions in production in October, has abandoned its previous plans. According to Reuters, there will be no increase in supply from OPEC+ next month and in November,” analysts at e-petrol.pl reported.