Dr. Allan Lichtman has been predicting the results of the US presidential elections since 1984, famous for his effectiveness. In calculations, he uses a self-created formula called “The Key to the White House”.
A history professor from American University also looked at the competition Kamali Harris i Donald Trump. The American media believe that he was right this time too.
Lichtman indicated that Kamala Harris will soon sit in the presidential chair. He presented several pillars that were key to his forecast.
US presidential elections. The famous analyst points to Kamala Harris
According to the professor, thanks to the candidacy of Kamala Harris, the Democrats united, avoiding the internal conflict that could have resulted from falling support for Joe Biden and the related problems.
The analyst emphasized that Harris' candidacy is unique and groundbreakingas well as her eventual victory. The first black woman in the White House gives America a chance for historic change while Donald Trump is increasingly perceived as a showman.
USA. Predicts election results. He doesn't trust polls
The professor also referred to the spectacular elements of the election campaign. They are organized by both Kamala Harris, who invites celebrities to the rallies, and her Republican rival, who recently got into a garbage truck in front of the cameras.
– It is the unusual events of the campaign that matter. This long-term performance and strength of the party in power, said the analyst. Not only is the campaign less important than it might seem, according to the professor. He has the same opinion about polls that have already taken place twice (in 2016 and 2020). they underestimated the forces Republicans.
US elections. The historian's forecast also has critics
Although Lichtman's model has proven its effectiveness for years, the election data expert Nate Silver is not convinced by the key adopted by the famous professor. He called the historian's method “a kind of junk science”, emphasizing that it is full of subjective variables.
In the latest US presidential poll Kamala Harris has a one percentage point lead over her rival Donald Trump. The Republican candidate has 43 percent. support, and the democrat can count on 44 percent. votes.
The media notes that for the last two months the trend in polls has been against Harris, however numerically, the chances are very even.
Source: “New York Post”
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