Only in 2022, in 7 out of 11 countries surveyed, more than half of representatives of automotive plants predicted an increase in employment in the next 12 months. Last year, such optimism concerned five countries: in 2024, there is no such country left – this is according to the Exact x Forestall report “MotoBarometer 2024. Mood in the automotive industry in Europe”.
Layoffs are coming in the automotive industry. The number of pessimists in Poland has increased
In Poland only every fifth respondent expects employment growthwhich constitutes second lowest score among the surveyed countries – ex aequo z Czech Republic and Hungary. This too lowest score from the beginning of the study, i.e since 2016 “The forecast becomes even less optimistic if we take into account that in 2024 the number of pessimists in Poland is eight times higher than in 2023. As many as 32 percent of automotive representatives in Poland plan to reduce the number of employees in the coming months. Year ago only 4% gave such an answer. respondents. This result is the highest among the surveyed countries,” we read.
Jacek Opala, president of the management board of Exact x Forestall, explains that “in the face of the slowdown in car sales in Europe and the costly transition to the production of electric vehicles, the largest automotive plants are increasingly announcing decisions not only to lay off part of their staff, but even to close down factories.” “Unfortunately, for now we are losing in the European Union-China clash,” he adds. Recently we wrote, among others: about the great problems of German giants such as Volkswagen Whether BMW.
These signals certainly cannot be ignored, because if the European Union does not act now, the consequences will be very bad for both the European industry and Poland. And the automotive industry is a very important element of our economy
– Mateusz Piotrowski, president of the Patient Europa Association, comments for Next.gazeta.pl.
Will artificial intelligence take away jobs?
MotoBarometer also shows that 73 percent respondents answered affirmatively to the question whether their company had implemented solutions based on automation or robotization of production. “One of the effects of such implementations may be employment reduction, which is confirmed by factory representatives,” we read. Most respondents answered affirmatively when asked whether automation would contribute to reducing the employment level in their plants. This group also includes Poland – 83%. respondents answered “definitely yes” or “probably yes”. – Although the biggest problems for companies today are unstable orders, decreasing demand and the difficult political situation in the world, in the long run it is robotization and AI that will have the greatest potential to take away jobs – emphasized Dawid Bąk, president of Steam Workforce.
“Europe cannot continue to live in the world of 15-20 years ago”
Can Europe defend its automotive industry? According to Mateusz Piotrowski, the recent move in the right direction was introduction of additional tariffs on Chinese electric cars, reaching even more than 35%..
Europe cannot continue to live in the world of 15-20 years ago, in the world of globalization and free trade, because this world no longer exists. China uses very strong protectionism, the United States used very strong protectionism during the previous presidency and will use even stronger protectionism under the new administration. So Europe must protect its industry because in doing so it also protects jobs
– the president of the Patient Europa Association tells us. – This is a very important move and it is good that the broad coalition of European countries included, among others, Poland, Italy and Spain managed to outvote Germany and Hungary on the tariffs on Chinese cars, which had a pro-Chinese attitude on this matter. According to Mateusz Piotrowski, customs duties are an important move, but insufficient, “because in addition to Europrotectionism, we need another leg, i.e. investments.”
No investment required. “There hasn't been a soft game here for a long time”
If we do not want to lose in the race for innovation, including in the area of electric cars, much greater investment in research and development is needed in Europe, including in our region. This, in turn, cannot be done unless the European Union secures a much larger budget for this purpose
– says the interlocutor to Next.gazeta.pl. Mateusz Piotrowski adds that in addition to more money, Europe must also have its industrial strategy, “just like China and other global economic and political blocs have their industrial strategies.”
We recently reported that Beijing was to recommend it to automotive companies suspension of investments in countries that voted for the introduction of tariffs. Poland was also among them. The Chinese manufacturer of electric cars operating in our country, Leapmotor, in consultation with the company that supervises it, Stellantis, has suspended investments in our country. The T03 model was to be assembled in Poland. – We need to have more investors in Europe who are able to finance innovation if we do not want to be crushed between these emerging economic blocs. There has been no soft play here for a long time. The sooner the European Union creates the tools of this game, the better, and the better for the Polish economy. Because individual European countries will not be able to cope with such giants as China or the USA – sums up Mateusz Piotrowski.
“MotoBarometer 2024” study
The study “MotoBarometer 2024. Moods in the automotive industry in Europe” was conducted by Exact x Forestall on a targeted sample of representatives of companies from the automotive sector. These included car manufacturers, sub-suppliers of Tier I and Tier II car components such as wipers, car windows, roofs, steering columns and safety elements. The sample size was 1,001 respondents from 11 countries (Poland, Belgium, The czech republicFrance, Spain, Germany, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Türkiye, Hungary). The respondents were representatives of automotive plants, including OEMs and Tiers, in particular quality engineers, plant directors, quality and production managers. The research was carried out using telephone interviews (CATI), online surveys and individual surveys from June to July 2024.