– The capabilities of both Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah have evolved since the 2006 war. This risks making a new conflict, which would likely draw others in, even more destructive – assessed the British daily “Financial Times”. It noted in its analysis that a potential full-scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is increasingly likely.
The newspaper noted that such a conflict would pit the Middle East's most sophisticated army, backed by advanced Western equipment and weapons, against what is arguably the world's most heavily armed non-state actor. In addition, the capabilities of both Israel and Iranian-backed Hezbollah have evolved since the 2006 war, threatening to make the new conflict, which would likely draw others in, even more destructive.
No city will be safe
“The dynamics have changed since 2006. What would make things worse this time is that the war today would not just be between Israel and Hezbollah, but would also involve other members of the Iranian-led 'axis of resistance',” Sanam Vakil, head of the Middle East program at London-based think tank Chatham House, told the FT.
She explained that this group, which includes Yemeni Houthi rebels and militias in Iraq and Syriaas well as Hamas, “operates and coordinates its actions in a transnational manner, which means that the war would not be limited to a specific geographical location and would have an impact on the entire Middle East.” The “FT” noted that Israel is one of the best equipped armies in the world, meeting the standards FOR THIS and possessing weapons manufactured in USAsuch as F-35 fighters, as well as high-end air defense systems and other new equipment. The country also has a well-developed domestic arms industry, producing its own tanks, armored vehicles, air defense systems, missiles, and drones. But Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which analysts estimate has between 20,000 and 40,000 fighters, is also a more potent force than it was in 2006. It now possesses a far more extensive and sophisticated arsenal of missiles and drones, much of it supplied by Iran, and far superior in combat capability to Hamas, which Israel has been fighting in the Gaza Strip for 10 months. The U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimates that Hezbollah has between 120,000 and 200,000 missiles, including precision-guided missiles and armed drones, as well as anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles. He notes that Hezbollah is now able to attack all of Israel and precisely calibrate strategic targets, meaning no city will be safe.
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More decisive action
Qassem Qassir, a Lebanese analyst close to Hezbollah, said the group had used about 5,000 missiles from its stockpile since last October, keeping many of its most advanced weapons in reserve, including longer-range weapons. He estimated that the group had used just 10 percent of its military, logistics and personnel capabilities in that time. The FT added that Hezbollah is opaque about its arsenal to maintain “strategic ambiguity,” but says it has about 100,000 fighters and that its forces have battlefield experience, having deployed alongside Russian and Iranian forces in the Syrian civil war. But Israel, in addition to having more capabilities than in 2006, has also become more determined after the October 7 Hamas attacks. Israeli leaders have warned that if a full-scale war breaks out, military action would be much more decisive and far-reaching than in 2006. However, analysts quoted by the FT note that despite its technological advantage, Israel would be at a disadvantage if it launched a ground offensive in Lebanon would face a range of threats and challenges. “The Israeli military is technologically advanced, but the question is what kind of war are we talking about,” said Seth Jones, vice president of CSIS. He noted that if Israeli ground forces entered southern Lebanon, “that’s a completely different story because Hezbollah, fighting a defensive war, would be in an area that they know very well.” Israel would also face the risk that its air defenses — including Iron Dome — would be overwhelmed. That threat would be exacerbated if Iran and its “resistance axis” intervened in support of Hezbollah, launching their own attacks on various fronts. Then, even with its technological advantage, Israel would be vulnerable to those attacks. In the event of an all-out war, the Israeli military “would be able to protect some very specific locations, but not every part of Tel Aviv, for example,” Jones added.
Three thousand shells a day
Emile Hokayem, a Middle East expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said that in 2006, Hezbollah fired an average of 124 missiles a day for 34 days. “This time, according to Western intelligence and Israeli analysts, Hezbollah could fire up to 3,000 missiles a day for 10 days, and possibly more,” he explained. Three people familiar with the group’s operations told the FT that even the Israeli military admits Hezbollah is capable of firing thousands of missiles a day. But one challenge for Hezbollah would be protecting its missile launchers, which are relatively static and must be on the surface for missiles to be launched. The relatively high casualty rate among Hezbollah fighters since Oct. 7 is partly due to Israel’s ability to target the launch site seconds after a missile is fired. Hezbollah has also failed to demonstrate the ability to shoot down Israeli fighters, although it has shot down several drones in the past few months. But as the FT noted, Israel has more than Hezbollah to worry about, with Iran vowing to retaliate against Israel for the alleged killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on Wednesday. Iran and Israel exchanged missile and drone strikes in April after Israel killed several Iranian commanders in Syria, but both sides were trying to avoid escalation at the time.
“The largest and most diverse missile arsenal”
The FT explained that given the distance between Israel and Iran, any direct battle would be an air war. Iran, under sanctions, has no conventional weapons to challenge Israel and has few operational aircraft. But it has built increasingly sophisticated missile and drone capabilities of its own and is relying on asymmetric warfare, mobilizing regional proxies and a 120,000-strong Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps force. According to CSIS, Iran has “the largest and most diverse missile arsenal in the Middle East,” with thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles, some of which can strike Israel and Southeast Europe.
Main image source: EPA/HAITHAM IMAD