Let's start with what has become cheaper in our basket in September. The leader is sugar, the average price of which decreased by 40.2%. year to year. On average, you have to pay PLN 3.70 per kilogram. Prices of (sunflower) oil also dropped significantly – by 17.8 percent, bananas – by 14.1 percent, and kaiser rolls – by 10.2 percent. and pasta – by 8.8%. Products from very different groups appear on this page of the list.
Butter on top. Why?
On the second side, i.e. at the forefront of the most expensive products, there was a frequently appearing hero: butter. Its prices increased by as much as 46.6%. year on year, to an average of PLN 7.89 per 200-gram cube. Here's a little explanation: this is an average price, from smaller stores, but they have also learned that butter is a magnet for customers, so you can often buy it at promotional prices. And such promotions also take into account the calculations made for us by the Market Monitoring Center (CMR).
Before we explain the reason for this increase in butter prices, let us remind you: for almost three years, we have been checking the prices in smaller stores (up to 300 m2). These are stores usually located close to homes, where we do our daily shopping. Data from thousands of facilities is collected by the CMR research company. This is an actual picture of what stores across Poland sell, based on real receipts. These data should not be compared to the Central Statistical Office's inflation reports, which are much broader and more detailed.
Now let's get back to the butter. What happened there? The prices of food producers, and consequently also in stores, are often influenced by what happens on the agricultural raw material markets (agricultural raw materials are traded on stock exchanges commodities, as well as e.g. energy, oil or gas).
This is most visible in the context of cereals, but also in the case of dairy products. Poland, although by EU standards is a large producer of food products, is also dependent on the situation on global stock exchanges for certain food groups. The prices of dairy products and the level of their production depend on global trends, which is why the situation, among others, is so important for this market: in New Zealand, the largest exporter of butter and whole milk powder in the world
– explains Anna Małek, economic expert at ING.
According to data from the US Department of Agriculture, New Zealand has 48 percent. share in global butter exports and as much as 74 percent in the case of powdered milk. Such milk is produced, for example, during butter production and has recently become more difficult to sell and its price has dropped. Therefore, as Anna Małek explains, significant dairy producers in the EU have started producing cheese to a greater extent because they can obtain an attractive margin on them. Therefore, more cheese was made from milk, but no more milk was produced – so, as a result, butter production was limited (also because its prices in the EU were falling several months ago, which influenced the plans of producers of this product).
In Poland, the currently rising prices of butter are influenced by reduced supply; according to the Central Statistical Office Bulletin, its production from January to August 2024 was 3.4% lower. compared to the same period of 2023, and inventories reported at the end of June this year. were the lowest in over two years
– says the ING expert.
What next with food prices?
It's not just butter that has gone up in price in our receipt report. In September, the prices of fresh cucumbers increased even more than in the case of butter – by 47.9%. year to year. The price of orange juice also increased significantly – by 17.4%. and tomatoes – by 19.8 percent About 10 percent each. the prices of sweets, wafers and chocolate also increased. You can see more in the graphic below:
Ddata from the Central Statistical Office on inflation for last month also indicate an increase in food prices (although slightly slower than the general indicator). What awaits us? – In the following months, the trend is unlikely to reverse, food prices will continue to rise. However, price dynamics may decline and we will rather avoid butter-like increases of the last few months – says Artur Waraksa, economic expert of the AGRO team in bank ING.
– The situation in the world is similar. The average rate for butter in the European Union increased by approximately 80%. compared to 2023. Indicators examining global prices of agricultural products are strengthening, including: FAO food price index [Organizacja Narodów Zjednoczonych do spraw Wyżywienia i Rolnictwa – red.]. Negative weather phenomena, such as droughts in the Black Sea region, Australia, South America and parts of Asia, as well as the political situation – tensions in the Middle East and trade relations between the US and China in the context of the upcoming presidential elections in the United States – global prices of agricultural raw materials will be influenced – Waraksa enumerates.