ISW quotes the words of Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov from Sunday's meeting of the Yalta European Strategy in Kiev. According to the general The Kremlin sees 2025 as a “breakthrough” year.
“No assurance of victory on Ukraine at the beginning of 2026 will undermine the aspirations Russia to remain a global superpower for the next 30 years. Budanov noted that Russia expects a deterioration of the economic and socio-political situation until mid-2025 and increasing difficulties with military recruitment. The general added that the Russian army is experiencing staff shortages and a decline in the number of new volunteers signing contracts” – we read in the think tank's report.
War in Ukraine: Vladimir Putin faces critical decision
ISW is watching the trend of increasing pay for contract military personnel in Russia. In some cases, these are one-off payments amounting to approximately one million rubles (approximately PLN 42,000).
Among the problems that the Kremlin has to grapple with, Budanov also mentions: drop in morale after the Ukrainian counterattack in Kursk region“It demoralized Russian citizens and weakened public perception of Russia as “invincible” – analysts add.
In the opinion of the head of intelligence growing problems will force Vladimir Putin to make a “critical decision”“Either he will launch another risky and controversial mobilization or he will reduce the intensity of combat operations in Ukraine.”
It should be noted, however, that Budanov's assessment assumes continued Western support for Kiev over the next two years. It also does not take into account possible military support for Russia from its allies in North Korea i Iran at the head.
War in Ukraine: Inexperienced Conscripts in the Heat of Battle
On Thursday, Ukrainian soldiers broke through Russian defense lines near the village of Novy Put in Kursk Oblast. In the following days, they reached the village of Vesele, where they shelled the occupiers' positions.
“Forbes”, citing reports from Ukrainian military personnel, notes that the garrison they attacked included a large group of “poorly trained, young conscripts.” “They were drafted into the army for only one year and according to the Kremlin's policy they should not take part in combat at all” notes war expert David Axe.
“The heavy reliance of the Russian Northern Group of Forces on conscripts is one reason why the Ukrainians have managed to advance so quickly along this axis. It is an ominous sign for the Russians that their defensive efforts at Vesele are apparently also dependent on unprepared young men in their teens to early twenties,” the Forbes journalist added.