Inflation and GUS data on salaries 2022. “Six million people did not see this increase in salaries”

The guest of TVN24 was Dr. Małgorzata Starczewska-Krzysztoszek, an economist from the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of Warsaw. Asked for comment on Wednesday decision of the Monetary Policy Council about leaving interest rates on the same level, she replied: – I think we all expected that there would be no movement here.

– Since the five months since the rates have not been moved by the Monetary Policy Council, every time during the conference the president (NBP Adam) Glapiński says that we have actually finished the move, that some difficult situation may happen and then we will return to decisions that may result in an increase in the reference rate, but for now there is nothing to expect, she explained.

At the same time, she emphasized thatinflation will be a problem, not only in the near future, but also in the long term.” Therefore, according to Małgorzata Starczewska-Krzysztoszek, the Monetary Policy Council should raise the reference rate.

The economist also referred to the argument that leaving interest rates at the same level means that loan installments will not increase, which will please many borrowers.

– But why are we talking only about borrowers? Let’s talk about savers. To a greater or lesser extent, households have their savings in banks. We are losing money, she said.

She added: – I am sure that the group that has savings is much larger than the group of borrowers.

She pointed out that another important area is that we are all consumers. “Having inflation at a high level over the long term will put a strain on our pockets as consumers,” she assessed.

According to the expert, we will have to deal with high inflation “not only in the coming months, but throughout this year, as well as next year”. – We will still be above the inflation that the National Bank of Poland and the Monetary Policy Council should take care of – she added.

The economist also commented data from the Central Statistical Officewhich informed on Thursday that the average salary in the national economy in 2022 amounted to PLN 6,346.15. In turn, the average remuneration in the fourth quarter of 2022 amounted to PLN 6,733.49. On Twitter, analysts from the Polish Economic Institute wrote: “Wage growth accelerated from 9.6 percent to 12 percent. Wages grew at the fastest rate in 23 years. However, it was not enough to catch up with inflation.”

Dr. Małgorzata Starczewska-Krzysztoszek noted that the increase in salaries last year should be compared with the average increase in prices. – The end of the year was very difficult, because inflation in October amounted to 17.9 percent, in November 17.6 percent and in December 16.6 percent. The average in the fourth quarter was above 17 percent, she said.

– It should be remembered that this is the average increase in salaries in the national economy. Surely a huge crowd of those who watch and read information about the increase in wages say: but my salary has not increased. Or “it has increased, but by 5 percent,” she noted.

On TVN24, the economist emphasized that “the public sector, about 6 million people, did not see this increase in salaries”. – In addition, forecasts say that the annual average inflation this year may amount to 12-13 percent. At the same time, in the budget, the government assumed an increase in salaries for the public sector of 7-8 percent, she noted.

– This group will be at a loss, because inflation will be significantly higher than the average salary increase planned by the government – she added.