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Wednesday, November 29, 2023

The numbers behind Daniel Ricciardo’s return to F1

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The probabilities of Daniel Ricciardo changing Sergio Perez at Pink Bull subsequent yr have risen after final weekend’s Mexican Grand Prix – and the following three races might be crunch time for 2 of the preferred drivers within the paddock.

Ricciardo’s beautiful fourth place in qualifying put him forward of Perez on the Mexico grid within the AlphaTauri – the supposedly lower-performing sister automobile to Pink Bull – and Perez’s first-lap crash and retirement was a marked distinction to Ricciardo’s seventh-place end. 

It was a shocking flip of type, considerably bettering AlphaTauri’s previous performances this season, and it got here simply two races after Ricciardo returned to the grid for a second time this season following his hand-breaking follow crash at Zandvoort.

In Brazil, Ricciardo has two extra probabilities to ship and he will probably be eager to proceed his type immediately within the Dash. It’s a lengthy shot, however his odds of a podium are at 250/1, a high six end at 16/1 and factors at 3/1, whereas the percentages of factors for each AlphaTauris at 22/1.

Uninspiring return

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Ricciardo was dropped by McLaren final yr however returned simply 11 races into the season. Rescued from retirement by a Pink Bull reserve function, his efficiency in mid-season testing, coupled with Nyck de Vries’ poor performances at AlphaTauri, acquired him the nod.

Nevertheless, Ricciardo didn’t make a direct impression on his comeback in Hungary – he set a time simply 0.013s quicker than team-mate Yuki Tsunoda in qualifying and whereas that was sufficient to get him into Q2, he was knocked out within the subsequent session and began thirteenth.

Within the race, the Australian dropped to final after being rear-ended by Zhou Guanyu after which hitting the again of Esteban Ocon. He recovered to complete in the identical place he began, whereas Tsunoda climbed two spots from seventeenth to fifteenth.

Photograph by: Pink Bull Content material Pool

Daniel Ricciardo, AlphaTauri AT04

In his second race again, at Spa, Ricciardo was knocked out in a wet Q1 whereas Tsunoda went by way of to qualify eleventh. Ricciardo was tenth within the dash, however in the primary race, Tsunoda completed tenth whereas his team-mate suffered automobile injury and will solely find yourself sixteenth.

The second coming

Ricciardo was sidelined by a crash in third follow on the Dutch Grand Prix and solely returned within the US, 5 races later. He made it into Q2 there however certified sixteenth and was virtually three-tenths off the tempo of Tsunoda, who once more certified eleventh.

After a Twelfth-place end within the Dash – two locations forward of Tsunoda – Ricciardo completed final in the primary race, a lap down on the leaders, whereas Tsunoda climbed into the highest 10, secured an eighth-place end and set the quickest lap. It was all shaping as much as be the tip of a profession.

However then one thing occurred in Mexico. At a monitor that has all the time been a Ricciardo favorite, the Australian set the eighth and sixth quickest occasions within the Friday classes and was ninth within the third follow. Encouraging, however not spectacular. Then got here qualifying.

Ricciardo was third in Q1, simply over 1 / 4 of a second behind Verstappen, then he knocked a second off his time by the tip of Q3 to complete fourth total, lower than two-tenths slower than pole sitter Charles Leclerc and inside a tenth of Verstappen’s Pink Bull.

What made Ricciardo quick?

It was an enormous swing from one weekend to the following, but it surely was really a very long time within the making. While Ricciardo was therapeutic his damaged hand, AlphaTauri had launched an aero improve in Singapore, however its full potential had not but been unlocked.

Heading to Mexico, the group had nonetheless solely certified within the high ten at 4 occasions, with a greatest place of eighth, and though Ricciardo had noticed a strategy to extract extra efficiency within the US, the Dash race format gave him no time to completely develop the chance.

The important thing to all of it was altering his set-up to provide him extra confidence in nook entry, permitting him to hold extra pace during every nook – and the three follow classes in Mexico gave him the flexibleness and time to develop this new strategy.

Daniel Ricciardo, AlphaTauri AT04.

Photograph by: Pink Bull Content material Pool

Daniel Ricciardo, AlphaTauri AT04.

He had already modified his set-up earlier than the primary session of the weekend, making the automobile extra steady on turn-in, with a looser back-end that was nonetheless manageable to drive. He then tweaked the set-up to go well with his driving fashion and the monitor and it simply acquired higher and higher.

Can it proceed?

Mexico is a unusual circuit. Its excessive altitude of two,285m can change aerodynamic efficiency, which might make it unpredictable – and though Sao Paulo is the second highest monitor on the calendar, it’s a lot decrease, at simply 800m, so the results are far much less.

That might scale back the relative advantages the AlphaTauri had over different vehicles in Mexico, but when Ricciardo has really discovered a brand new path, it ought to no less than transfer him additional up the pecking order, even when that isn’t to such lofty heights as seen final weekend.

Ricciardo thrives on good vibes and he will probably be buzzing from his experiences within the Mexico race. He was battling with the 2 Mercedes in an AlphaTauri and he can have liked that. If he can construct on that positivity, he will probably be on a excessive – but it surely might additionally go the alternative means.

Mercedes are second favourites to Pink Bull for Brazil, nonetheless, with the percentages of each vehicles getting on the rostrum at 9/2 and the percentages of both getting a high six at 4/7. The percentages of an AlphaTauri being the primary automobile to retire, in the meantime, are at 7/1.

Mexico calls for good tyre administration and Brazil can also be robust, with medium degradation and excessive temperatures. Pirelli took C3, C4 and C5 tyres to Mexico, whereas Brazil will probably be C2, C3 and C4, so Ricciardo might want to regulate his method to unlock the identical efficiency.

The important thing level, nonetheless, is that Ricciardo now has a constant and well-balanced automobile that enables him to adapt it to go well with his driving fashion. He wanted a couple of races to make it occur, however now he has discovered the route, his outcomes will merely depend upon monitor suitability.

Daniel Ricciardo, AlphaTauri AT04

Photograph by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

Daniel Ricciardo, AlphaTauri AT04

In the meantime, Perez’s continued poor type is mirrored by his odds of 20/1 to win the Dash – regardless of him being within the class-of-the-field automobile. It’s 9/4 for each Pink Bulls to get on the rostrum – and Perez must make that occur to defend his seat.

Ricciardo’s alternative to stake a declare to the Pink Bull is opening and whereas he could not attain the lofty heights of Mexico once more, if he can take the AlphaTauri to locations it has not been to date this yr, he might go away Pink Bull with an low season headache.

Hold monitor of the motion

To maintain monitor of the motion, wherever you’re, the F1 Live Tracker from bet365 is an efficient place to go – masking all the data you possibly can probably want, from all of the follow classes, by way of qualifying, sprints and the race itself.

It permits customers to trace every driver’s place from the beginning grid to the end, dwell all through the race, with present leaderboard data, the most recent quickest lap, present lap occasions, variety of pitstops by driver, present tyre settings and driver gaps.

To make it easy to catch up, a timeline particulars all of the vital race updates – together with all the important thing overtakes and incidents – and it additionally permits two drivers to be in contrast head-to-head throughout the race, highlighting them on the tracker.

On high of that, all the security automobile updates, crimson flags and yellow flags are coated, whereas monitor data akin to temperatures, humidity and probability of rain makes it attainable to maintain tabs on potential adjustments and challenges and extra simply predict what might occur.

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