Down trade: The World Trade Organization announced on Wednesday that expects a decrease in trade by 0.2 percent this year. In October last year, the WTO forecasted 3 percent. growth. – I'm very concerned, decrease in the growth of global trade in goods It is a serious problem – said the head of the WTO NGOZI Okonjo -Iveala.
The biggest crisis since the pandemic? It has been added that as a result of Donald Trump's actions regarding customs tariffs, “side effects can lead to the greatest crisis from the peak of Covid pandemic,” Reuters says. Let us remind you that Donald Trump imposed 125 percent on China. mutual duties. Along with previous tariffs of 20 percent. The customs rate for imports from China is 145 percent. Beijing answered duties of 125 percent However, Trump withdrew from his duties to electronics from China. He also suspended for 90 days duties imposed on most other countries, including the European Union.
The largest decrease from 2020: WTO stated that If Trump hung these tariffs after 90 daysthis trade would drop by 0.6 percentage point, “and because of the side effects going beyond trade related to the US, there would be a further decrease by 0.8 points”. In total, this would lead to a decrease of 1.5 percent, which would be the worst result from 2020.
“Two isolated blocks”: The head of the WTO added that her greatest fear is that China and the US's economies “will start to move away from each other.” The World Trade Organization estimates that Trade between them will drop by 81 percent It could amount to a total of 91 percent, were it not for exceptions to such products as e.g. smartphones. – This could contribute to a wider fragmentation of the global economy along the geopolitical line into two isolated blocks – said Ngozi Okonjo -Iweala. In this scenario Global GDP could shrink in the long run by 7 percent.
Recession trend: The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) informed earlier on Wednesday that Global economic growth can slow down to 2.3 percent.because “commercial tensions and uncertainty drive a recession trend.” The expected slowdown takes place after 2024, in which the volume of world trade in goods increased by 2.9 percent, and trade in commercial services increased by 6.8 percent. WTO also added that disturbances in trade between the USA and China They will probably increase the Chinese export of goods to all regions except North America by 4-9 percent. Other countries would have a chance to fill the gap in the United States in sectors such as textiles, clothing and electrical equipment.
See also: The concerns move to the USA. More in the text “Trump's duties are doing their job. The Japanese giant moves production to the USA. Others follow in his footsteps”.
Source: Reuters