According to PiS MP Piotr Król, the proof that the 500 plus benefit effectively increases the fertility rate in Poland is the fact that more third and fourth children are born. This was the case shortly after the introduction of this benefit, while the number of births of the third and fourth child has been falling for four years.
“There are also children out of love, and today, ladies and gentlemen, this is the greatest gift that can be given to Poland. I am talking primarily about ladies, because it is known who has to give birth to these children, and it is not easy. And we will do everything make sure that there are as many of these gifts as possible” – these words of Jarosław Kaczyński, Deputy Prime Minister and President of Law and Justice, which were spoken at a meeting with voters in Połajewo on July 30, were discussed by the guests of the program on Sunday, August 6 “Coffee on the bench” TVN24.
Journalist Piotr Marciniak asked the Left MP Anna Maria Żukowska whether Polish women should give birth to “gifts for Poland” and whether Kaczyński’s words motivate to bear children. Żukowska replied that the PiS president’s statement “shows contempt for women”. “A child is not a thing, a child is not a gift,” she stressed. When the host then asked PiS MP Piotr Król about the effects of the 500 plus program on fertility in Poland, an exchange of views ensued.
Piotr Marciniak: So 500 plus in this respect ultimately turned out to be ineffective… Piotr Król: In what respect? PM: In terms of fertility rate (ed.), which initially increased and then decreased. Are such appeals now… PK: In addition, we have an increase for the third and fourth child? PM: Are such appeals a strategy now… PK: I do not agree with this thesis. PM: So, according to you, 500 plus is effective, more and more children are being born in Poland? PK: As for the third and fourth child – yes. PM: More and more children are being born? PK: The statistics show that the third and fourth children do. PM: But generally more and more children are born? PK: I understand that everyone… PM: I understand that some families, that there are more families with many children. Is that what you mean? But overall fewer and fewer children are born.
Is it really? The data of the Central Statistical Office do not confirm the thesis of the PiS MP.
For several years, fewer and fewer women decide to have a third and fourth child
Data on live births in the order of birth of a child by one woman are published in “Demographic Yearbooks” Central Statistical Office and on the website maintained by the Central Statistical Office Local Data Bank. In the latter place, there are already statistics for 2022 (updated on July 5, 2023).
We analyzed data from 2015-2022. The Central Statistical Office did not provide them for 2018, because how he explained, the reason was a change in the patterns of birth cards (and they are the source of GUS data). “On the new templates of birth cards introduced by the Ministry of Health, records regarding the number of children born to the mother were changed, which caused serious problems with the correct completion of this information by doctors. As a consequence, it is not possible to present data on births according to the order of birth of the child for 2018” – he explains office.
MP Król clearly pointed out that the 500 plus program, in operation since April 2016, positively affects the fertility rate and the number of third and fourth children born to women. We also used data from the previous year to know what the situation was before 500 plus. The available data show that the number of births of a third child increased in 2015-2019 (excluding 2018) from 39 thousand. down 57.6 thous. At the same time, women also gave birth to more of their fourth children: in 2015 they were almost born 10 thousandand in 2019 already 16.3 thousand.
The year 2020 brought a breakdown of the upward trend – but we must remember that it was the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Then the third children were born 52.1 thous., and fourth – 15.3 thousand. This is respectively 5,554 and 973 less than the year before.
In the following third and fourth years, there were fewer and fewer children. In 2021, the third children were born 50.6 thousandand in 2022 – 47.3 thous. The number of births of the fourth child in 2021 fell to 14.6 thousand, and a year later to 14.2 thous.
In 2022, only one was born in Poland 305 132 childrenand (according to Local Data Bank of the Central Statistical Office), which meant a decrease by 26,379 children compared to 2021. After the introduction of the 500 plus benefit in 2016, 382.3 thousand children were born. children, a year later already 402,000, but in the following years there were decreases. In 2018, there were 388.2 thousand. live births; in 2019 – 375 thousand; in 2020 – 355.3 thousand, in 2021 – 331.5 thousand. – we served Konkret24 in March this year.
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