In July 2023, in 8 out of 17 cities surveyed, apartment prices set new records. For example, in Wrocław, the level of PLN 11,000 per square meter was exceeded for the first time. The increases are also confirmed by the data of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) on taxation prices – we learn from the report expander.pl and rentier.io.
“The fever has returned to the real estate market. There are again cases of customers calling and wanting to book an apartment without seeing it,” the report said.
It was also emphasized that “in July the real estate market experienced a boom similar to the one we remember from the era of ultra-low interest rates.”
“Flats were selling like hotcakes mainly thanks to the Secure Credit 2 percent program. Within a month, over 18,000 loan applications were submitted, most of which concerned the purchase of a flat. Of course, such a pace cannot be maintained in the long term. there is the so-called postponed demand, i.e. how long will there be such a large interest in the program, analysts pointed out.
Offer prices of apartments – July 2023
It was added that “this year the most heated real estate markets (among the cities surveyed) are Katowice, Kraków and Sosnowiec”, with “in all prices in July were 13% higher than in December 2022”, and “apart from them, a two-digit an increase (+10 percent) was recorded only in Warsaw.” On the other hand, “prices were lower than in December 2022 only in Gdańsk (-4.5 percent) and Szczecin (-0.1 percent).”
“When it comes to the changes that took place only in the past month, a lot of records attract attention. The highest average prices in history were recorded in Białystok (PLN 8,898 per m2), Kraków (PLN 12,664 per m2), Lublin (PLN 8,878 PLN per m2), Łódź (PLN 7,903 per m2), Sosnowiec (PLN 6,480 per m2), Toruń (PLN 7,997 per m2), Warsaw (PLN 14,265 per m2) and Wrocław (PLN 11,279 per m2). In the latter city, the level of PLN 11,000 per m2 was exceeded for the first time.
It was also pointed out that in July there were also price drops, and “it was slightly cheaper than in June in Gdańsk (-4%), Gdynia (-1.5%), Bydgoszcz (-1%), Szczecin (-1%). per cent) and Rzeszów (-0.8 per cent).
The report states that “a significant decrease in the number of active apartment sale advertisements is also noteworthy”, because “in July, in the 17 cities surveyed, we recorded 102,710 unique (after removing duplicates) advertisements”, and “this means a decrease by over 7,000 (6.6 percent) of advertisements in just a month”.
Recovery on the real estate market
“By the way, it is worth mentioning the recently published NBP data, which show how transaction prices changed in Q2 2023, i.e. before the start of Safe Credit 2 Percent. They show that the increase in prices is not only the result of higher rates in sales announcements Shoppers in most cities actually paid more than in Q1 2023 primary market rates increased in 10 out of 17 cities, and in the secondary as many as 14 out of 17 cities.
It was added that “the most important event on the mortgage loan market was, of course, the launch of the Secure Credit 2 percent program”, and “its huge popularity is the result of, on the one hand, high demand, which accumulated for many months, when young people had great difficulty obtaining a loan mortgage.” It was pointed out that “at the same time, the program has many advantages – it allows you to get a loan without own contributionfor a relatively high amount and with a very low installment, which is greatly reduced by subsidies”.
Real estate market – what next?
Analysts also wrote “what awaits the real estate market in the coming months”. According to them, “in the short term, it will be crucial how long the huge demand for Secure Credit 2 percent will last.”
“If by the end of the year, the increase in prices on the entire market in 2023 may exceed 10%, and thus beat our June forecast. If prices calm down and stabilize in the autumn, we will end the year with an increase below 10%. Currently, it is very difficult to assess how many people who meet the conditions of the program will benefit from it in the near future.
They added that “in the long term, pace will be key interest rate cuts and to what level they will fall.
“Significant cuts (by more than 2 pp.) combined with rising wages will drive price increases. At the same time, demographics and immigration will be more and more important. People born in the 1990s will buy their first apartments, and then much fewer were born children than in the 1980s. Prices will increase where there is demand for housing, while in depopulated regions there will be more and more empty premises, which will stabilize or even decrease prices, the report states.
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