Inflation in Poland. Store prices in 2022. How much have they increased?

The authors of the report “Price index in retail stores” calculated that throughout 2022 daily purchases in stores increased by an average of 19.1 percent. compared to 2021. They wrote that among the 12 monitored categories, they showed the highest year-on-year growth dynamics fats (47.2%), loose products (27.4%), so-called other articles, incl pet food and baby diapers (25.9%), meat (25.5%)and dairy (22.4%).

According to an economist from the WSB University in Wrocław, Dr. Tomasz Kopyściański has a huge impact on the prices of fat products war in Ukraine. – Ukraine and Russia had a very large share in the production and export of plant products to Poland and other countries before 2022. This was significantly reduced, which, with the continuing high consumer demand for these goods, resulted in high price increases – explained Kopyściański.

In his opinion, the key reason for the increases was a large increase in energy and heating charges, which translated into general store maintenance costs and, consequently, into retail prices. The increase in fuel prices, as well as increases in the salaries of store employees, also had a significant impact. In addition, there were supply factors related to the limited availability of certain goods, which was particularly reflected in the prices of fat products and loose products.

– In addition, the costs of production of such goods as, for example, sugar, paper, bread, cold cuts and animal feed have increased – pointed out Kopyściański. He added that the anti-inflation shield, consisting in the application of reduced VAT rates for consumers, is still a factor mitigating the increase in food prices.

Analysts and authors of the report from UCE Research indicated that last year was a record year when it comes to pay rises milk prices. This was influenced by factors such as a fairly dry summer period or rising feed prices, which strongly affected the prices of milk in the purchase.

“Currently, the market can see that prices in purchases have fallen. However, in our opinion, this does not mean that dairy products in stores will become cheaper. Admittedly, the market also shows a decrease in orders for dairy products, which should be associated with a decrease in prices in stores, but the situation may only be temporary. It was noted that this year the price of dairy products will gradually increase and will continue until the cost of milk production stabilizes.

According to an economist from the WSB University in Gdańsk, Dr. Anna Semmerling, if the political and economic situation does not deteriorate drastically in 2023, the rate of increase in prices in stores will not be so high, but – as she assessed – “it will be expensive”. She added that in 2023 we will not be able to avoid an increase in the prices of many products, including due to the increase in labor costs, for example in connection with growth minimum wage or growing electricity prices. According to the economist, the inflation peak should be expected at the turn of the first and second quarter of 2023, with Easter being a breakthrough period, which “may still surprise with the increase in prices in retail chains”.

According to Semmerling, the product on which inflationary pressure will decrease will be e.g. meat, which should lead to a stabilization or even a fall in meat prices, depending on the type. In her opinion, beef may become cheaper in the near future, while poultry may become more expensive. – With a decrease in consumption, Poles will buy cheaper products more often, the demand for more expensive products will fall, and thus the price of meat may decrease – she explained.

In the economist’s opinion, the previous activities of retail chains and their pricing strategies resulted from global increases in raw material prices and were related to market expectations. However, within 2-3 years, consumer demand will decrease, “which will cause many entrepreneurs to face a crisis that not everyone can handle”.

Julita Pryzmont, the substantive consultant of the study from Hiper-Com Poland, is also cautious about the effects of the fight against inflation. – Inflation will lose some of its dynamics, but it will still be in double digits and will continue to be strongly felt by the wallets of ordinary Poles. It is very likely that the price bubble will decrease due to weakened demand in the market, but this does not mean that prices in stores will be lower. They’ll just grow slower, she said. She also added that 2023 is an election year. – This will be associated with further promises, and thus, instead of curbing inflation, we will unfortunately continue to fuel it, which in the long run may be quite dangerous for consumers’ wallets – she explained.

The report points out that the growing costs of maintaining stores may be difficult to pass on to the customer. – Since the end of 2022, we have been observing a drastic reduction in the number of stores on the market that are unable to maintain profitability with the growing dynamics of operating costs. We can expect this trend to deepen this year – summed up Dr. Kopyściański from the WSB University in Wrocław.

The “Retail Price Index” report has been published monthly for nearly 6 years. The analysis shows the average price value recorded year-on-year. In this installment, the results from the entire 2022 and 2021 were compared. This concerned 12 categories and 52 most frequently chosen everyday products by consumers.

In total, nearly 570,000 were put together. retail prices from almost 41 thousand. stores belonging to 65 retail chains. The study covered all discounters, hypermarkets, supermarkets, convenience and cash&carry chains on the market, reaching the majority of consumers in Poland with their offer.