Moldova – what will Russia do? Analysis by ISW experts: changing the Kremlin's narrative

In its latest report, the Institute for War Studies (ISW) drew attention to Thursday's statement by the spokeswoman of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova, who accused the Moldovan government of pursuing a policy in the country comparable to “Nazi genocide.”

Referring to the recognition of Romanian as the state language in Moldova in 2023, Zakharova announced: “In one second, with the stroke of the pen of the government (of President Maja) Sandu, the Moldovan language was transformed into Romanian. And what is this if not elements of genocide against another nation?” ISW also emphasized that Zakharova made an absurd accusation that the Moldovan authorities use “eugenic practices” similar to those in the Third Reich.

According to the think tank, it was a “clear change in the rhetoric of Kremlin representatives regarding Moldova, probably aimed at creating conditions for taking control over Moldova, and not only over some of its regions.”

The Institute noted that in her statement, Zakharova departed from Russia's current narrative about the need to defend Russian “compatriots” who are allegedly discriminated against. Russia previously used a similar narrative to justify its attack on Ukraine.

“The Kremlin's shift from claims of persecution of people who speak Russian to persecution of those who speak Moldovan indicates that the Kremlin is probably trying to justify a future attack on all of Moldova,” ISW concluded.

According to the center, the presence of the leaders of the pro-Kremlin opposition Moldovan bloc Victory at Thursday's Victory Day parade in Moscow proves that the Kremlin wants to use them to “destabilize the entire Moldova and attack Moldovan democracy and its accession process to the European Union.