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Parliamentary elections 2023. Poll – opposition with a parliamentary majority. Anna Materska-Sosnowska comments

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There is a visible profit for the opposition parties – said Dr. Anna Materska-Sosnowska, a political scientist from the University of Warsaw and the Stefan Batory Foundation, in “Fakty po Faktach” on TVN24. In this way, she commented on the results of a survey for “Fakty” TVN and TVN24, which showed that the opposition parties would have a majority in the Sejm. She added that “the whole game will be about who will be able to form what coalition with whom.” She also stated that “PiS made a mistake” during the party’s convention in Katowice on Sunday.

From the latest survey party Kantar for “Fakty” TVN and TVN24 shows that it has the greatest support Law and Justice – 34 percent, which would translate into 188 seats in the Sejm. However, three opposition parties that took the next places – Civic Coalition, New Left and Third Road – would have a total of 244 seats, i.e. they would have a parliamentary majority. The difference between PiS and KO results has narrowed compared to the September poll. The New Left recorded the greatest increase in support.

Poll for “Fakty” TVN and TVN24: opposition with a parliamentary majority

“There is a visible gain for the opposition parties”

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The results of the survey were commented on “Fakty po Faktach” on TVN24 by Dr. Anna Materska-Sosnowska, political scientist from the University of Warsaw and the Foundation. Stefan Batory.

She said that “there is a visible gain for the opposition parties.” – Even though there is minus one percentage point for the (Civic Coalition) itself, what is important is the minus three or minus four percentage point decline for Law and Justice. This is another survey showing this and (showing – ed.) increases for third parties. Because the whole game will be about who will be able to form what coalition with whom, said the political scientist.

“PiS made a mistake in Katowice”

– These surveys show one thing – there is potential for change. This is the title of the report that we prepared in Batory (at the Batory Foundation – ed.) a month ago. Poles are tired of this government, she continued.

She also referred to Sunday’s PiS convention in Katowice.

Read also: “Tusk’s system”, “Tusk’s briefcase”, “Tusk’s German vision”. One topic dominated the PiS convention

– It seems to me, in the comparison of such pictures, that PiS made a mistake in Katowice. Because the entire opposition first hardened its electorate, but has been working for the future for some time, she said.

– For example, this is the spot with children, these are 100 proposals of the Civic Coalition, these are proposals of the Left, these are very specific proposals of the Third Way. However, in Katowice there was still a hardening of the hard electorate, or its own electorate. You don’t need to harden the hard one, you need your own. And (there was – editor) an attempt to discourage people from voting for the opposition – said the political scientist.

“Two elements” that influenced the increase in support for the New Left

Doctor Materska-Sosnowska also pointed to “two elements” that, in her opinion, influenced the increase in support for the New Left.

– First of all, they are absolutely coherent and consistent in their message. Secondly, the message of the leader himself at the march (Million Hearts March – ed.) was clear. He took up topics that the Civic Coalition does not, because it cannot do so, and this consistency brings results, she pointed out.

The TVN24 interviewee also said that Third Way “did the right thing” by focusing on field work and convincing voters. – What Tusk did, he said nicely (at the Million Hearts March, about the Third Way – ed.) – “let everyone do what they do.” This is a demonstration of joint work for a common effect, she added.

Main photo source: TVN24



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