PKN Orlen lowered wholesale fuel prices. Urszula Cieślak from BM Reflex comments

On Saturday wholesale fuel prices in PKN Orlen dropped sharply. EU95 petrol and diesel prices fell by around 12% to their lowest levels since February/March 2022. There was another cut on Sunday.

Urszula Cieślak, an analyst at the Reflex Brokerage House, admitted that she expected such a move. – We expected (wholesale – ed.) price reductions, because what we observed in direct analysis fuel prices ready for the European market and zloty exchange rate to the dollar, more or less for the last 1.5 months, indicated that we are dealing with a situation of building a higher margin – said Cieślak on TVN24.

– Of course, this was justified by the fact that earlier announcements of, among others, the president of PKN Orlen (Daniel Obajtek – ed.), but also representatives of the government would be fulfilled after the new year – she noted.

Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki he said earlier that the government wants the restoration of VAT rates not to be associated with increases at petrol stations. In turn, the deputy prime minister, the minister of state assets Jacek Sasin expressed hope that “the increase in fuel prices after the New Year will be small”.

– Therefore, this is an action that is intended to confirm the announcements that after the new year drivers will not experience increases at stations, even though the rate will increase VAT. It seems to me that this is an image-building activity that was supposed to show that there is no tax increase, because the price at the distributor is maintained, said Urszula Cieślak.

But – as the BM Reflex analyst emphasized – “of course, this happened at the expense of the fact that (…) we paid more so that nothing would change now.”

In her opinion, drivers will ultimately pay more than if wholesale fuel prices were lowered before January 1, 2023. – If we had a guarantee that we would pay less for the next few weeks, let’s say in three months it would be the same. However, we have absolutely no guarantee that prices will remain stable for the next few weeks, if the prices of crude oil, ready fuels or the zloty weaken, they will not affect the level of fuel prices – stressed Cieślak.

– It seems to me that, unfortunately, the changes that we will observe on the wholesale market and, consequently, on the retail market, will already take into account all these realities, so as soon as the prices of ready-made fuels on the European market increase, it will be reflected in the price lists – she assessed.

According to the analyst’s forecasts, stable levels of fuel prices at dispensers should be observed for several days. – We expect the situation to calm down in the next few days so that this image and the image that prices are maintained unchanged will be confirmed – explained Urszula Cieślak.

On the other hand, there are stations where fuel prices have increased since the beginning of 2023.

– All stations must be supplied with cheaper fuel, which has become cheaper in bulk by PLN 800 per cubic meter over the last weekend. Those stations that did not sell out the fuel from the old deliveries, but also do not have competition in the form of the nearby Orlen concern, raised prices, because this reduction is so fundamental that they were unable to offset the increasing VAT rate with the retail margin. Therefore, we have single stations in the country where we pay over PLN 8 for diesel, and we pay over PLN 7 per liter for 95-octane petrol – said Cieślak.

According to the BM Reflex analyst, “this is a situation that will last maybe until the middle, maybe until the end of this week, and then these prices across the country should reach a level similar to or slightly higher than the levels we talked about in the last week of last year.” .