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Poland’s GDP 2023. World Bank forecasts down, global economy close to falling into recession

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According to the latest forecasts of the World Bank, the Polish economy may slow down below 1 percent in 2023. The global economy is “dangerously close to falling into recession”. Global gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 1.7 percent this year, not the 3 percent forecasted in June.

The World Bank has indicated that the slowdown in the growth rate of the world economy will be followed by a permanent invasion Russia to Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic. As the BBC website wrote, an increase of 1.7 percent would be the lowest since 1991, not counting the 2009 and 2020 recessionscaused by the global financial crisis and the pandemic, respectively.

World Bank President David Malpass said the slowdown would have “broad bases” and that people’s earnings growth in almost every part of the world would “be slower than in the decade before COVID-19”.

GDP growth in the world’s richest economies is likely to continue its sharp deceleration from 5.3% in post-pandemic 2021 to 2.5 percent. in 2022 and only 0.5 percent. this year. “Slowdowns of this magnitude have foreshadowed a global recession over the last two decades,” the World Bank warned, adding that it predicted “a sharp, long-lasting slowdown.”

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If there was a global recession, it would be the first time since the 1930s that there have been two global recessions in the same decade, the BBC’s website pointed out.

Forecasts for Poland down

The World Bank lowered its growth forecast Poland’s GDP in 2023 to 0.7 percent. from 3.6 percent estimated in June. According to the institutions, the growth rate of Poland’s GDP in 2024 will amount to 2.2 percent, 1.5 percentage points more than in the previous year. percent less than in the previous round of forecasts.

“We expect the Polish economy to slow sharply to less than one percent in 2023 due to much weaker growth in euro areaat zero in 2023, i.e. 1.9 percentage points less than expected in June 2022,” said Cristina Savescu, World Bank economist for European Union countries, quoted in the release.

She noted that “weaker forecasts for Poland for 2023 are also the result of several other factors.” “First, we’re dealing with a strong slowdown in domestic demand due to elevated inflationwhich affects purchasing power. Secondly, the delayed effect loses its importancee – due to the COVID pandemic – demand. Third, it is the expected effect stock reductionafter their strong growth supporting growth in 2022″ – explained Savescu.

“The delayed effect of monetary policy tightening, lower demand from major trading partners and poor sentiment related to war in Ukraine will also hurt growth this year. National Reconstruction Plan in turn, it can support public investment, but any delays in obtaining EU funds weaken the growth prospects, she added.

The Bank estimates that in 2022 Poland’s GDP growth amounted to 4.4 percent.

Main photo source: Shutterstock

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