Moody's agency assessed Poland's creditworthiness in the face of recent events. It was recognized that threats were “alleviated by Poland's membership in NATO and significantly increased self -defense capabilities.” The country's credit assessment remains at the “A2” level and its perspective is stable.
A stable rating perspective reflects the agency's assessment that high susceptibility to geopolitical threats, in particular security threats, is alleviated by Poland's membership in NATO and significantly increased self -defense abilities. “It is also supported by improving the EU relations since the change of government in December 2023, which released significant funds that will support investments in 2025-2028” – Moody's said.
As the agency explained, the review was carried out by the Rating Committee on March 18, 2025, during which the adequacy of ratings in the context of the appropriate methodology and recent events was again assessed. It has been added that “this publication does not mean taking action against the rating and does not indicate whether taking actions in the field of credit assessment is likely or not in the near future.”
Factors affecting the assessment of the rating of Poland
As the authors of the review “stable perspective also reflects our view that the impact of the forecast increase in public debt load and reduction of the ability to incur debt (Debt Affordability) are balanced by the solid perspectives of Poland's economic growth and strong involvement in the reduction of the fiscal deficit to a level below 3 percent of GDP in the next five years, what It would stabilize with a debt of about 60 percent – written.
In the initial condition for any positive actions against the Polish rating would be – in the opinion of Moody's – a significant improvement in the situation in the field of security in the region and a significantly lower geopolitical risk.
“Among the fundamental factors, the positive development of the credit situation could reflect: quick restoration of the full independence of the judiciary and the implementation of other initiatives that support economic and fiscal strength; Any signs that the expected deterioration of Poland's debt indicators will prove to be less pronounced, and stronger efforts for fiscal consolidation will lead to a reduction in the level of debt much below 60 percent. GDP, ultimately rebuilding the solid balance of the public sector from before the pandemic; Further progress in increasing the advancement and complexity of the Polish economy ” – added.
Pressure to lower the rating
Pressure to reduce the stable perspective of the Polish rating would have a significant deterioration in the security situation in the region, including more specific signals of the withdrawal of support USA.
In turn, the pressure to lower the “A2” rating would appear in the script of a significantly faster increase in the government's debt load and deterioration of the indicators of the ability to incur debt, which goes beyond the current base scenario of Moody's.
A re -deterioration in the rule of law, which would have a negative impact on the location economic activity In Poland, it would also be negative for credit assessment.
“Although our base scenario does not assume a military confrontation between NATO and Russia, every military attack on Poland would result in an immediate negative rating assessment. In such a scenario, which we perceive as a shock burdened with very low risk, but with a very large impact, Polish rating would be under significant additional pressure, which would probably lead to a few degrees” – added.
In the opinion of Moody's Rating, Poland is supported by a dynamic economy, improving relations with the European Union, which has unlocked significant funds for investments for Poland, and a strong, though deteriorating fiscal balance.
“There have been signals about the potential withdrawal of the United States from Europe, but high expenses for Polish defense (4.1 percent of GDP in 2024) and the effective increase and modernization of the Polish armed forces from 2014. They are an important mythigrifier in this area. Unfavorable demographic trends will start to weigh at the potential height of Poland at the end of the second decades of two -thousand years and increases the costs Fiscal of the aging of society, “the agency said.
Economic forecast for Poland
Moody's forecasts that dynamics Polish GDP In 2025 it will amount to 4 percent, which will be powered by private consumption and investments.
According to the agency, the deficit of the sector of government and local government institutions (GG) will only fall slightly to 5.8 percent. GDP in 2025 from the estimated 6.1 percent in 2024, taking into account the further increase in defense expenditure to 4.7 percent. GDP.
“We only expect a gradual fiscal consolidation from 2026, which would stabilize the debt load slightly above 60 percent of GDP to 2030.” – Added.
In mid -March this year. The Fitch rating agency has maintained Poland's rating at A-/F1 level for long- and short-term obligations in foreign currency and A-/F1, respectively for long- and short-term obligations in national currency. The rating perspective remains stable. According to the agency, confirmation of the current Polish rating is, among others Large, varied and resistant economy, achievements in the field of solid macroeconomic policy based on membership in the European Union.
About rating
Rating is a creditworthiness assessment which is a measure of risk related to the investment in the issuer's debt papers. Rating is broadcast by an rating agency based on the assessment of economic, political and social risk. The main rating agencies are: Fitch, Moody's and S&P.
The current Polish rating according to S&P is A-/A-2 for long- and short-term obligations in foreign currency and A/A-1 for long and short-term liabilities in national currency.
Of the three largest rating agencies, Poland's creditworthiness is assessed by Moody's – at “A2”. Polish rating according to Fitch and S&P is “A-“, one level lower than Moody's. The prospects of all grades are stable.
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